Crapnackle Speaks!

Crapnackle Report - September 29. 2008 ~ 10:41 AM:

Now is the time to put money, effort and other applicable resources to work. By now, I mean over the next few months. I'd still give it a couple of weeks for the stench to reach the nasal passages.

Had you done it over the last year, chances are good you lost money. If you were lucky enough or patient enough to wait until now, you stand a chance to do well. The message has been clear for a long time (two years or so) that "the economy" is lousy and getting lousier. There were a few holdouts who kept saying that things would get better.

Now there is almost complete agreement that everything stinks. Most people fear the worst and believe we are going down, down, down. Even those who are always bullish are wincing.

I and almost everyone is sold on the dismal state of everything.

That's it. We'll have a healthy chunk of market hurl today and maybe another nice big upchuck in the next week or so just to emphasise the point and then that will be it. The bottom will have arrived. Thank goodness. Now let's get back to business.

Remember what a bottom looks like. On the other side of the moment there is still a period of more lousy. We'll probably see more pain in the next week or two, but really - who can make a call down to the day? The bottom feeling may last for a while and we may wallow in it for a time, but it is the bottom. It just won't get appreciably lousier. That might not sound all that wonderful, but if you stay away (chicken), and don't act until you see signs of improvement, you'll be competing with everyone. Right now - be bold and win!

There you have it.

Cool Hand Luke

Paul Leonard Newman (January 26, 1925 – September 26, 2008)

In school, I took a film class and we dissected every cut of every scene in the movie "Cool Hand Luke". You had to like Luke.

Hmmm... let's consider

Constructive dilemmas--

1. (If X, then Y) and (If W, then Z).
2. X or W.
3. Therefore, Y or Z.

Destructive dilemmas--

1. (If X, then Y) and (If W, then Z).
2. Not Y or not Z.
3. Therefore, not X or not W.

McCain's Economic plan - "Marry a Beer Heiress"

McCain's Economic Plan For Nation: "Everyone Marry A Beer Heiress"

And That's Why I don't like Cricket

Mighty Boosh - Fossil Dance.

Amateur Balloonist

Amateur balloonist floats around the world.

The Stone Church

Who would have guessed? Not me.
We'll see what we can do. It should be interesting.

Pencils down. When?

Is it time?

What time is it?

When?

Now?

Soon?

Pencils down!

No - not pencils down.

Yes indeed, it's just about time for pencils down.

So - it isn't actually pencils down. How much time is left before the real pencils down?

Not much.

Oh boy.

.

Eventually...

Eventually, home prices will be relatively stable. Somewhere just under what it costs to put up a new one. This will mean that perceptions about puffed values will no longer drive people's decisions. Those with bloated mortgages will simply be "upside-down". They'll accept it as a fact and act accordingly. Some will stiff the bank, and others will find a way to get their positions right. Buyers will buy the homes offered at acceptable prices and walk past the rest. This is just the way it will be.

Lenders will lend money based on the new value reality and they'll be happy to do a 30-year fixed mortgage for folks with some kind of a down payment. There will be much less creativity when it comes to financing.

Some people will rent from those with enough money to control rental properties. There will be some balance between what you get and what you pay for. Of course this will happen.

Oh - and one more thing... Eventually, nuclear power will deliver energy in abundance and demand for fossil fuels will be only for those applications in which it is necessary.

Now then, isn't all that nice to know?