It's not necessarily just the money - Oh no.

"Will work for personal satisfaction and to be fully engaged in something worthwhile"

...or not.

Thinking - Animated

Thinking about "stuff"?

I thought this was pretty good, so here...

You have to click on the picture to run the animation.

T'is the season

A reasonable point of entry might be when the future looks like crap. Q4 and Q1 are indexed lower, but the slowdown adds to the gloomy atmosphere. This tid from Automotive news is an example of the noise that helps everyone see pain. The perfect point of entry (buying in) would be when good businesses (sadly) have suffered (lowered their expectations / selling price) and the weakest have given up (only working capital is needed). I'm not sure exactly when the time will be right, but it could be soon.

Automotive News November 26, 2007 - 12:01 am EST

At a recent auto summit held by Reuters, three big-time industry investors painted a bleak picture of U.S. auto sales for 2008. One expects sales to plunge to the lowest total in 15 years.

Jerry York, adviser to billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian: 15.5 million units or fewer, down from about 16.1 million this year. "I'm just not sure how bad it could be."

Thomas Stallkamp, former Chrysler president and a key player at the private equity firm Ripplewood Holdings: "I'd say it's somewhere between 14.5 and 15. ... I'm a little more towards 14.5." That would be the lowest total since 1993.

Wilbur Ross, who has assembled an auto parts empire through acquisitions: A drop of a few hundred thousand units next year. The U.S. consumer is "pretty well tapped out," he said.

None of the three predicted a recession for the U.S. economy in 2008. But York said, "It feels like it's on the way."

Hey you - with the bass... back it off a hair.

Some music is recorded with bass frequencies that push speaker limits. Not just loud - I can appreciate loud. I'm talking about the bass that on anything but giant high-end equipment, flaps, hums and chatters. If I listen to it on decent gear it's noticeable, almost tolerable (still not enjoyable) but not quite as annoying. In the car or something less worthy, it's nasty (bad nasty, not good nasty).

Push that file around and mash it into an mp3 and sometimes it gets so bad, the track is painful. Curiously, sometimes it gets better. I'm guessing that the compression process might edit away some of the extreme bits.

I'm seeing this more often as people use digital tools to make and produce music. The temptation to take the bottom to "that place" should be resisted. Nothing has to shake - really. Move that thing back will you please.

There... now isn't that better?

Cover everything in chocolate

Cover everything in chocolate and see what happens
Cover everything in chocolate
Cover everything in chocolate and see what happens

Cover everything in chocolate

ID theft, the new Y2K?

A friend of mine (a smart fellow) just said, "Identity theft is the new Y2K".

Hmmm... You know ~ he might be right in many ways. Think about Y2K and the concern it generated. We were all going to turn into pumpkins at midnight. Cars might stop working, phones - what if phones stopped working? Certainly computers and all they controlled would cough up something nasty. Streetlights, airplanes, eeeeeh!

Those lazy code writing geeks let this happen, and now this is going to be a real pain in the butt. I remember hanging out and waiting with my company IT staff (I was paying them extra too) at the ready when the moment came. We backed up everything. I think I might have even paid a network consultant to "check me out" beforehand.

The clock struck twelve. In fact, it struck twelve a whole bunch of times in different parts of the world. The staging of this disaster left it lacking in drama. Anyway - nothing happened. Literally nothing. We tested a few things and all was well and we went home. The next day - nothing. Y2K had passed without all the crashes and explosions. A few apps here and there might have been affected, but nothing with dire consequences. We were seriously over-prepared. The fear had been way over sold.

The fear of identity theft is something lots of people are trying to capitalize on. Look how many companies have sprung up in the past year looking to protect you. In a lot of ways, this is a Y2K-esque situation. I think it's probably being oversold at least a little bit.

Unlike Y2K, the problem is real. People have had their identity stolen and been fleeced. With Y2K, some people made money helping us prepare and calming our fears, but unlike Y2K there won't be a moment when "it's over". So this problem, the risk and the solutions have a place. Actually, identity theft is a new and improved Y2K.

...and so on

The real estate froth is gone and that's not news. Renovations have slowed too. The contractors and trades who do plumbing, electrical, site work, framing, counter-tops, flooring, roofing and a long list of other things, have lost their backlog of work, gone out looking for it and even lowered some prices.

For a lot of these folks who had small businesses - especially the ones that weren't that good, but survived primarily because the demand was so high - the game is over. They're not going to make it. Even the good ones are having to manage things differently, more carefully. There is a little fear out there.

So the small business doesn't go out and buy that F-350 (he tries to get by with the old one). The Ford dealer gets rid of the night clerk and the lot attendant to save payroll. The car dealer, the clerk and the lot attendant have a problem that started as a housing valuation and finance problem.

Yes - things are connected, cyclical and often unavoidable. Annoying huh?

Easily Spooked? Boo!

Last week, was depressing if you're heavily invested in stocks. Monday was gloomy too, but yesterday things are happy again. Today starts out nicely and then not so good. Hour by hour the picture changes. From this distance, it's a bumpy ride. Oh boy, what will the rest of the day and tomorrow be like?
There are buying and selling motivations everywhere with pieces of news (a.k.a. data) indicating what will happen next. Lots of those bits of information include talk about market reaction (trend) and the direction of the moment. From close in (short period - like a day or even a week), the market's face is inches from the glass, studying its own reflection - easily spooked. Boo!

Money moment

Pretend for a moment that you have enough money to live a normal life - not a luxury life, but one that includes most material needs. The challenge to just survive has been met and this fortunate position allows you to ask yourself, “Without regard for money, what is it that I would like to do"?

My dilemma in answering this question appears to be that “the money” - its benefit and potential, are a significant source of satisfaction. An accumulation of potential (money) feels productive, and depleting that potential feels unproductive. I find this difficult to disregard.

Chicago

If you've never been there, Chicago is bigger than you think. The buildings are taller and there are more of them than you think. It spreads out wide and piles up high (downtown). It has plenty of restaurants, museums and theatre ~ and if you're a shopper and you need some "stuff", Michigan Avenue will be more fun than you can stand (or afford). If you stay and play downtown, you can spend a lot of money in short period of time.Traffic is no worse than Boston or New York (so it's bad, but it works - sort of). Yup - Chicago is a real city - bigger than you think. I like Chicago.

Leverage anyone?

If we buy or create a company using a significant amount of borrowed money (bonds, loans - all kinds of promises) to pay for it, we are using leverage. The assets of the company being acquired, in addition to the our assets (or not) are used as collateral for the loans.

The purpose of using this leverage is to allow us to make a large acquisition without having to commit a lot of capital. The deal will most likely require a ratio of 70% debt to 30% equity (90% to 95% isn't crazy) of the target company's total capitalization. The equity component of the purchase price will be supplied by a pool of private equity capital (investors). The investors are the ones who will decide how crazy it is.

The capital can be borrowed through a single source or a combination of sources. In most situations this type of debt will be considered high risk (not unlike some high yield junk bonds - often junkier than that, but there are limitations) . It's also likely that the debt will appear on the new company's balance sheet and the new company's cash flow will be used to repay it. The new entity must make money beyond the amounts paid to investors for the use of the money, or else this isn't going to be all that much fun. It's not for the squeamish. In light of the risk, the return is deservedly handsome. The investor can earn a decent coupon, plus a share of distributable earnings.

These arrangements can take many shapes. As far as I can tell, there is no such thing as a "standard deal". If the plan makes sense, is neatly described, well executed - there is a market for this type of idea - even on a small scale. As long as the winds (things outside of the company's direct control) blow in the right direction - there are attractive returns available. The investor can also get less than expected or worse... nothing.

With a little help from the experienced architects of such arrangements, the possibility exists.

(or not)

Great Stuff - sort of

This material is quite useful. If you prepare properly and get it in the right places, it works nicely.

However, if you get the stuff on your hands or anything else, you've got some problems. It doesn't burn or anything super dangerous, but it is extremely sticky and as sticky stuff will do - it makes a mess.

I sealed up some holes and cracks in a crawlspace foundation. It was awkward down there. The floor was sand (beach house) and before I knew it I had this yuck on my hands, a bit on my cloths and apparently I touched my face a few times. The foundation looked good. I like the way it worked.

Unfortunately, the sand and dirt plus this stuff on my hands, face and clothing was nasty. At first it was kind of funny. When I looked in the mirror, I laughed - ha ha. I started washing the stuff and nothing happened. I mean it didn't budge. I went quickly to the nail polish remover... Nothing! Lacquer thinner and a lot of scrubbing made hardly a dent. I tried mineral spirits, grip solvent (golf grips - It's like paint thinner) - nope. I tried comet, spic and span, lava soap and some other under the kitchen sink elixirs. I used up a half bottle of Goo-Gone in between soapy efforts. By the time I was done, I had knocked the tackiness off, but that was about it. I worked on it with another round of household approaches and more solvents the next day and while it definitely didn't go away, I managed to lighten it up a little.

Well now it has been four days and I still have the stuff on my hands. It's somewhat better now. It's basically wearing off. At least people don't look at me and wonder what sort of silly move did I pull.

If you need to use this stuff, read the label, be careful and USE GLOVES.

College Brands - Do they matter?

Education is very important. Going to a good college and doing well is important - or at least useful. As adults, people compete against each other at a higher level than ever before. The edge gained from study and from getting a diploma from a well know and respected school can be the difference between getting a good job - or not. Is that true? I guess it is. It sure makes sense doesn't it? Hmmm...

I think it actually is true, but it's not as big a deal as you might think. The college educational process teaches you how to learn on your own. It lets you grow up in a sort of half-way house of life. Your activities are shaped for you (mostly) and your living conditions are not entirely your own responsibility, but you do get to decide how you'll prioritize and how you'll govern your own priorities. This is a huge part of learning and education.

Assuming that most colleges provide access to good information and deliver it in an effective way. I think the "big brand" school is overrated relative to the outcome a kid can expect several years into his/her life. That initial job or two might get influenced by the school's brand name, but once in there I think it's entirely up to the young man or woman what they do with it. I have hired people with credentials - including degrees from a brand college - but after that, the sheepskin, the college brand name the whole concept goes out the window, never to be considered again. Never! You keep learning and getting better. You make something happen - or not. It's that simple. The school's influence is / was a factor, but in reality - (in real life) is wildly overrated.

The competition for a spot in a brand school is fierce. Really good smart and dedicated kids; ones that will eventually be winners in a competitive world, are getting freaked out by the admissions process and the pressure to get a highbrow school to accept them. Once in, they feel more pressure to meet their own high expectations. I think a good student will apply her own pressure, regardless of the college brand.

I though this effort (below) by Seth Godin was pretty well presented.


What if I told you about an industry which:

• Indebts most of its customers, sometimes for twenty or more years a person
  
• Not only consumes most of four years of its customer's time, but impacts its prospects for years before even interacting with them
  
• Enjoys extremely strong brand preferences between competitors and has virtually no successful generic substitutes
  
• Dramatically alters relations within a family, often for generations
  
• Doesn't do it on purpose

...and according to most of the studies I've seen, there's very little or no difference in the efficacy of one competitor vs. another.

Of course, I'm talking about undergraduate colleges in the US.
The most competitive colleges are as competitive as ever--in most cases, more so. Many admit only one in ten students. According to two senior officials at Swarthmore, the differences among the 'good enough' applicants is basically zero. Rather than putting tens of thousands of kids through insane anxiety, they wonder, why not just put all the 'good enough' students in a pool and pick the winners randomly?

Here's the amazing part: According to The Chosen, an exhaustive study of college admissions, there's no measurable difference between the outcomes of education with the most exclusive schools and the next few tiers. Graduates don't end up happier. They don't end up with better paying jobs. They don't end up richer or even healthier. The whole thing is a sham (which costs a quarter of a million dollars a person at the top end).

There's no question that a Harvard degree helps (or is even required) in a few fields. There's also no doubt that spending four years at Yale is a mind-changing experience. The question isn't, "are they wonderful?" The question is, "Is it worth it?"

It's almost as if every single high school student and her parents insisted on having a $200,000 stereo because it was better than the $1,000 stereo. Sure, it might be a bit better, but is it better enough?

Boomer parents have bought in to the marketing hype at a level rarely seen in any other form of marketing. They push school districts, teachers and their kids to perform pointless tasks at extreme levels just to be admitted to the 'right' school, even though there's hardly evidence that the right school does anything but boost their egos.

Schools respond by spending a fortune on facilities that will increase their rankings in various faux polls, even though there's no evidence at all that a better gym or a bigger library matters one bit to an undergraduate's long-term success in life.

If it weren't so expensive (in terms of time and money) it would make a marvelous marketing case study. Add in the tears and wasted anxiety and it's really a shame. Very few people are pointing out that the emperor is barely clothed, and those that do (like me, I guess) get yelled at.
I'm not criticizing a college education per se. No, it's clear that that's a smart investment. I'm talking about the incremental cost (and anxiety) separating consumers of the 'top' 500 schools from students of the 'top' 50. It appears to be pure storytelling, a story that so appeals to the worldview of baby boomers with teens that they are absolutely unable to resist the story, despite the facts.

High school students are thrust into a Dip, in some cases the biggest one of their lives. The Dip extracts significant costs along the way, and then ends with a giant spin of the roulette wheel. I wonder if we're marketing ourselves to a dead end.

I guess I'd do two things. First, I'd figure out how to teach parents to understand what really matters and what doesn't about time spent in high school and the choice of a college. Second, I'd push for every selective college to share one application and do a draft similar to the one they do for medical residencies. Every applicant ranks the schools they'd like to attend, in order. Every school considers all the applications, grabs the students they'd love to have in priority order, puts the rest into the "good enough" pile and lets a computer sort em all out as pareto optimally as possible. At least kids will go into their twenties correctly blaming a computer instead of mistakenly blaming themselves.