Monday, December 31, 2007

Twas '07

2007 was, and that's the most important thing about it.

This will be the final post of 2007 (unless I feel a pressing need later today, but I doubt it). While I'm still not sure why I stuff these things out here, I continue to do it. If you do something without good reason, is that crazy? Maybe huh?

2008 is a Leap Year. I guess that means it's time to leap. Hopefully I have that right. We'll see.

"Half our life is spent trying to find something to do with the time we have rushed through life trying to save".

Will Rogers

Sunday, December 30, 2007

Peter, Peter, Peter...

What is the managers job? It is to direct the resources and the efforts of the business toward opportunities for economically significant results. This sounds trite -- and it is. But every analysis of actual allocation of resources and efforts in business that I have ever seen or made showed clearly that the bulk of time, work, attention, and money first goes to problems rather than to opportunities, and, secondly, to areas where even extraordinarily successful performance will have minimal impact on results.

What is the major problem? It is fundamentally the confusion between effectiveness and efficiency that stands between doing the right things and doing things right. There is surely nothing quite so useless as doing with great efficiency what should not be done at all. Yet our tools especially our accounting concepts and detail focus on efficiency. What we need is (1) a way to identify the areas of effectiveness (of possible significant results), and (2) a method for concentrating on them.


Peter Drucker

Early rising

If you get up early, you have an edge.

You might not think this notion is worth the full ten bucks. Perhaps the idea is too simple? If you don't see the full value here, I shall agree to take less. If- on the other hand, you're measuring worth by volume, I would suggest you reconsider your system altogether. But of course - you'll still be in the rack.
Thanks for coming.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Hammer this!

No Say!

Ya but what if...

Hey - if I'm standing on the edge of a cliff, I might fall. If that happens, I'll be killed. Not only that, but the fall will be a horrifying experience. My concern is surely justified. If I'm at the same edge, but securely anchored to a structure and it's not possible for me to fall, why would I be afraid? In one case I have a rational fear (logic), but in the other I have an irrational fear (phobia). The difference between logic and phobia isn't always as clear as it is in this example.

Perceived consequences are what drive our concerns. Sure death is a pretty serious consequence, but there's a whole lot of thinking going on about subjects less damaging than death. What makes some people seem fearless?

Let's look here: Maslow's hierarchy of needs

Monday, December 24, 2007

Sunday, December 23, 2007

NBA's #1 draft choice for 2008 B.C.

The greatest basketball team ever would have been built around this guy. Unfortunately, he is apparently dead and a fake. Too bad. I would've liked to how they defended him in the low post.

Horn acoustics

Okay, so maybe I'm a little fascinated by the use of acoustic horns in this application. This set of speakers runs close to $20,000. Whaaaaat?

Friday, December 21, 2007

Monday, December 17, 2007

Home Audio - System of the week?

Just plug in your i-pod.
You want this huh?

Friday, December 14, 2007

No pain... None!

I'm not aware of a situation where making someone feel badly about their work or about themselves has ever enabled success. Guilt, ridicule, bullying, a condescending tone, doubt, hurtful criticism and anything that makes someone feel like they are not worthy of your confidence, we'll call "pain". I could call it anything, but pain seems appropriate. Pain and especially individually addressed personal pain has no upside.

If you have a relationship (personal or business) where you find that you need to deliver personal pain, you would be better off finding a way to end the relationship. Pain won't fix anything - it only destroys potential. I don't know of anyone who ever reached their potential without support and encouragement in the right places. Getting mad about something is one thing, but if the recipient takes your lack of confidence to heart, it's pretty much over.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

What if no one is interested?

The reason why someone is selling seems like an extremely important thing to understand. We would guess that there are circumstances where someone needs to sell a piece of real estate. Maybe their job moved etc. There are also folks who would like to sell their house because they want to downsize or upsize - they want a different house. Maybe they bought that house to sell it (flip). Hmmm...?

What do you do if no one is interested? No offers. No traffic. Nothing.

You need to sell your house vs. You would like to sell your house.

Well, the truth is that there is a price where it would sell. You then become less wealthy by the amount of the loss. What if you can't be less wealthy because you have no money. You owe more than the "it will sell at this" amount to the bank. You just might have to stay there; or you could just leave - let the bank have it.

Some people make a deal with the bank; sell the property and then set up a new loan (unsecured) with the lender. These people might be back to fight another day.

Some decide it just isn't worth it and they punt. These people probably won't be back.

That's how this stuff happens.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

So you purchased a pen...

A review of a BIC pen purchase on Amazon.com. This guy's toungue is cleverly planted in his cheek. There were some others attached to this product that were also pretty good.

How about the fact that 997 of 1,003 people found the review helpful:

Very good if you need to write on paper, 7 Mar 2007
By M. Williams "Matt Williams" (Essex, England) - See all my reviews

Since taking delivery of my pen I have been very happy with the quality of ink deposition on the various types of paper that I have used. On the first day when I excitedly unwrapped my pen (thanks for the high quality packaging Amazon!) I just couldn't contain my excitement and went around finding things to write on, like the shopping list on the notice board in our kitchen, the Post-it notes next to the phone, and on my favourite lined A4 pad at the side of my desk.

My pen is the transparent type with a blue lid. I selected this one in preference to the orange type because I like to be able to see how much ink I have left so that I can put in another order before I finally run out.

When the initial excitement of taking delivery of my new pen started to wear off I realised that I shouldn't just write for the fun of it, this should be a serious enterprise, so by the second day of ownership I started to take a little more care of what I wrote. I used it to sign three letters, and in each case was perfectly happy with the neatness of handwriting that I was able to achieve.

I have a helpful tip for you that you might not know about - if you let the ink dry for a few seconds you can avoid the smudging that sometimes happens if you rub the ink immediately after writing. Fortunately the ink used in this particular Bic pen seems to dry very quickly.

On the third day of ownership I went on a trip to London and took my pen carefully packed away in my brief case, but I needn't have worried, this isn't some temperamental ink pen that leaks when you store it at the wrong angle. I sat at my meeting and confidently removed the cap from my pen and it wrote flawlessly, almost immediately.

I notice that the barrel of the pen has been crafted very carefully to fit in the pen holder down the edge of my Filofax. It's not so grippy so that it is hard to remove when I want to make a quick note, and yet not so loose that it falls out too easily when I open my Filofax in a hurry. Maybe the choice of surface texture on the pen has some part to play here, because it seems that the inside of the leather grip on the pen holder in my Filofax has just the right level of adhesion that I can be confident when I need to reach in and get my pen it's going to be just where I left it!

Today is the fourth day of ownership of my pen, and I have to say I'm starting to treat it like an old friend. I walk around the office with it clipped in to my shirt pocket and someone in the accounts department actually asked to borrow it while we were both standing at the photocopier. Would you believe it, they actually tried to walk away with my pen! They were very embarrassed when I called after them as they walked down the corridor and asked for it back. You will be happy to know that it is now back, safe and sound in my top pocket, ready and waiting to start writing again.

In summary, I would happily recommend this pen to anyone who is planning on writing on paper. If you are considering a writing implement for some other surface such as writing on a CD, or other non-porous substances then another pen might be better suited, but if it's just plain old paper then I think you will probably be well served by this particular model.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Silver and Gold

Specific Gravity (SG) is the ratio of the density of a given substance, to the density of water (H2O). Substances with a specific gravity greater than 1 are heavier than water, and those with a specific gravity of less than 1 are lighter than water.

Gold has a specific gravity of 19.3, meaning it is 19.3 times heavier than an equal volume of water.

Silver's specific gravity is 10.5.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Philippe Starck - On Design

An interesting 17 minutes. Yes indeed.

http://www.ted.com/talks/view/id/197

Holiday Wishes

I know I've tossed this up there before, but during the season it's surely worth ten bucks.

Steve Martin's Holiday Wish...

If I had one wish that I could wish this holiday season, it would be that all the children to join hands and sing together in the spirit of harmony and peace.

If I had two wishes I could make this holiday season, the first would be for all the children of the world to join hands and sing in the spirit of harmony and peace. And the second would be for 30 million dollars a month to be given to me, tax-free in a Swiss bank account.

You know, if I had three wishes I could make this holiday season, the first, of course, would be for all the children of the world to get together and sing, the second would be for the 30 million dollars every month to me, and the third would be for encompassing power over every living being in the entire universe.

And if I had four wishes that I could make this holiday season, the first would be the crap about the kids definitely, the second would be for the 30 million, the third would be for all the power, and the fourth would be to set aside one month each year to have an extended 31-day orgasm, to be brought out slowly by Rosanna Arquette and that model Paulina-somebody, I can't think of her name.

Of course my lovely wife can come too and she's behind me one hundred percent here, I guarantee it. Wait a minute, maybe the sex thing should be the first wish, so if I made that the first wish, because it could all go boom tomorrow, then what do you got, y'know?

No, no, the kids, the kids singing would be great, that would be nice. But wait a minute, who am I kidding? They're not going to be able to get all those kids together. I mean, the logistics of the thing is impossible, more trouble than it's worth! So -- we reorganize!

Here we go. First, the sex thing. We go with that. Second, the money. No, we go with the power second, then the money. And then the kids. Oh wait, oh jeez, I forgot about revenge against my enemies! Okay, I need revenge against all my enemies, they should die like pigs in hell! That would be my fourth wish. And, of course, my fifth wish would be for all the children of the world to join hands and sing together in the spirit of harmony and peace.

Thank you everybody and Merry Christmas.

Friday, December 7, 2007

Brand

A Brand is what people say about you when you're not in the room.

A Brand is a promise. By defining the source of a product or service it's a pledge of satisfaction and quality.

A Brand is a set of qualities that add to or detract from perceived value.

A Brand speaks the truth - whatever that might be.

A Brand is an image burned into your ass (if you're cattle), or your mind if you are human.

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Managing "what is" vs. "for more"

Let's consider two business situations. One where the business is looking for growth in order to become profitable. In need of "more" to survive, we have to accept more unknowns and take more risk. It's part of what we do. Another situation is where the business has done some healthy growing, is now profitable, seems sustainable at these levels, and looks to take some risk off the table by managing "what is" more effectively.

Managing "what is" effectively is a different skill than managing "for more". It's possible for one person to be capable in both situations, but the more likely scenario is that we lean one way or the other. Consider the case where you start out as a "more" person by necessity; it's what we do. Then - after a successful run of "more", you begin to protect "what is". Some might argue that once you've moved away from the clarity of the growth requirement, it becomes much more difficult to see where you are.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Can't swing a cat




I was looking around for a possible retail location and saw this place listed for $495,000. It's a single story older brick building that is approximately 20 x 20 ~ 400 square feet. We took a ride to take a fast look. It's not a wreck, but it's not in great shape either. At more than $1,200 per square foot, I can't figure this one out.

"There's not enough room to swing a cat."


Monday, December 3, 2007

Spin


Spin is a portrayal in one's own favor of an event or situation. It usually involves creative presentation of the facts. The ability to create clever spin can be considered an art. However, those who do it well and often are known as Spin Doctors.

Pound vs. US Dollar

Check out the value of the US Dollar vs. the Pound going back to 1925.
Today, the Pound buys you $2.07. The graph shows the period from 2001 - 2007, but look at it "back in the day". Go figure.

Year Rate
1925 $4.83
1926 $4.86
1927 $4.86
1928 $4.87
1929 $4.86
1930 $4.86
1931 $4.54
1932 $3.51
1933 $4.24
1934 $5.04
1935 $4.90
1936 $4.97
1937 $4.94
1938 $4.89
1939 $4.43
1940 $3.83
1941 $4.03
1942 $4.04
1943 $4.04
1944 $4.04
1945 $4.03
1946 $4.03
1947 $4.03
1948 $4.03
1949 $3.69
1950 $2.80
1951 $2.80
1952 $2.79
1953 $2.81
1954 $2.81
1955 $2.79
1956 $2.80
1957 $2.79
1958 $2.81
1959 $2.81
1960 $2.81
1961 $2.80
1962 $2.81
1963 $2.80
1964 $2.79
1965 $2.80
1966 $2.79
1967 $2.75
1968 $2.39
1969 $2.39
1970 $2.40
1971 $2.44
1972 $2.50
1973 $2.45
1974 $2.34
1975 $2.22
1976 $1.80
1977 $1.75
1978 $1.92
1979 $2.12
1980 $2.33
1981 $2.02
1982 $1.75
1983 $1.52
1984 $1.34
1985 $1.30
1986 $1.47
1987 $1.64
1988 $1.78
1989 $1.64
1990 $1.78
1991 $1.77
1992 $1.77
1993 $1.50
1994 $1.53
1995 $1.58
1996 $1.56
1997 $1.64
1998 $1.66
1999 $1.62
2000 $1.52
2001 $1.44
2002 $1.50
2003 $1.64
2004 $1.83
2005 $1.82
2006 $1.84

2007 $2.07

Friday, November 30, 2007

It's not necessarily just the money - Oh no.




"Will work for personal satisfaction and to be fully engaged in something worthwhile"

...or not.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Thinking - Animated



Thinking about "stuff"?

I thought this was pretty good, so here...

You have to click on the picture to run the animation.






Monday, November 26, 2007

T'is the season

A reasonable point of entry might be when the future looks like crap. Q4 and Q1 are indexed lower, but the slowdown adds to the gloomy atmosphere. This tid from Automotive news is an example of the noise that helps everyone see pain. The perfect point of entry (buying in) would be when good businesses (sadly) have suffered (lowered their expectations / selling price) and the weakest have given up (only working capital is needed). I'm not sure exactly when the time will be right, but it could be soon.

Automotive News November 26, 2007 - 12:01 am EST

At a recent auto summit held by Reuters, three big-time industry investors painted a bleak picture of U.S. auto sales for 2008. One expects sales to plunge to the lowest total in 15 years.

Jerry York, adviser to billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian: 15.5 million units or fewer, down from about 16.1 million this year. "I'm just not sure how bad it could be."

Thomas Stallkamp, former Chrysler president and a key player at the private equity firm Ripplewood Holdings: "I'd say it's somewhere between 14.5 and 15. ... I'm a little more towards 14.5." That would be the lowest total since 1993.

Wilbur Ross, who has assembled an auto parts empire through acquisitions: A drop of a few hundred thousand units next year. The U.S. consumer is "pretty well tapped out," he said.

None of the three predicted a recession for the U.S. economy in 2008. But York said, "It feels like it's on the way."

Friday, November 23, 2007

Hey you - with the bass... back it off a hair.

Some music is recorded with bass frequencies that push speaker limits. Not just loud - I can appreciate loud. I'm talking about the bass that on anything but giant high-end equipment, flaps, hums and chatters. If I listen to it on decent gear it's noticeable, almost tolerable (still not enjoyable) but not quite as annoying. In the car or something less worthy, it's nasty (bad nasty, not good nasty).

Push that file around and mash it into an mp3 and sometimes it gets so bad, the track is painful. Curiously, sometimes it gets better. I'm guessing that the compression process might edit away some of the extreme bits.

I'm seeing this more often as people use digital tools to make and produce music. The temptation to take the bottom to "that place" should be resisted. Nothing has to shake - really. Move that thing back will you please.

There... now isn't that better?

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Cover everything in chocolate

Cover everything in chocolate and see what happens
Cover everything in chocolate
Cover everything in chocolate and see what happens
Cover everything in chocolate

Monday, November 19, 2007

ID theft, the new Y2K?

A friend of mine (a smart fellow) just said, "Identity theft is the new Y2K".

Hmmm... You know ~ he might be right in many ways. Think about Y2K and the concern it generated. We were all going to turn into pumpkins at midnight. Cars might stop working, phones - what if phones stopped working? Certainly computers and all they controlled would cough up something nasty. Streetlights, airplanes, eeeeeh!

Those lazy code writing geeks let this happen, and now this is going to be a real pain in the butt. I remember hanging out and waiting with my company IT staff (I was paying them extra too) at the ready when the moment came. We backed up everything. I think I might have even paid a network consultant to "check me out" beforehand.

The clock struck twelve. In fact, it struck twelve a whole bunch of times in different parts of the world. The staging of this disaster left it lacking in drama. Anyway - nothing happened. Literally nothing. We tested a few things and all was well and we went home. The next day - nothing. Y2K had passed without all the crashes and explosions. A few apps here and there might have been affected, but nothing with dire consequences. We were seriously over-prepared. The fear had been way over sold.

The fear of identity theft is something lots of people are trying to capitalize on. Look how many companies have sprung up in the past year looking to protect you. In a lot of ways, this is a Y2K-esque situation. I think it's probably being oversold at least a little bit.

Unlike Y2K, the problem is real. People have had their identity stolen and been fleeced. With Y2K, some people made money helping us prepare and calming our fears, but unlike Y2K there won't be a moment when "it's over". So this problem, the risk and the solutions have a place. Actually, identity theft is a new and improved Y2K.

Saturday, November 17, 2007

...and so on

The real estate froth is gone and that's not news. Renovations have slowed too. The contractors and trades who do plumbing, electrical, site work, framing, counter-tops, flooring, roofing and a long list of other things, have lost their backlog of work, gone out looking for it and even lowered some prices.
For a lot of these folks who had small businesses - especially the ones that weren't that good, but survived primarily because the demand was so high - the game is over. They're not going to make it. Even the good ones are having to manage things differently, more carefully. There is a little fear out there.

So the small business doesn't go out and buy that F-350 (he tries to get by with the old one). The Ford dealer gets rid of the night clerk and the lot attendant to save payroll. The car dealer, the clerk and the lot attendant have a problem that started as a housing valuation and finance problem.

Yes - things are connected, cyclical and often unavoidable. Annoying huh?

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Easily Spooked? Boo!

Last week, was depressing if you're heavily invested in stocks. Monday was gloomy too, but yesterday things are happy again. Today starts out nicely and then not so good. Hour by hour the picture changes. From this distance, it's a bumpy ride. Oh boy, what will the rest of the day and tomorrow be like?
There are buying and selling motivations everywhere with pieces of news (a.k.a. data) indicating what will happen next. Lots of those bits of information include talk about market reaction (trend) and the direction of the moment. From close in (short period - like a day or even a week), the market's face is inches from the glass, studying its own reflection - easily spooked. Boo!

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Money moment

Pretend for a moment that you have enough money to live a normal life - not a luxury life, but one that includes most material needs. The challenge to just survive has been met and this fortunate position allows you to ask yourself, “Without regard for money, what is it that I would like to do"?

My dilemma in answering this question appears to be that “the money” - its benefit and potential, are a significant source of satisfaction. An accumulation of potential (money) feels productive, and depleting that potential feels unproductive. I find this difficult to disregard.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Chicago

If you've never been there, Chicago is bigger than you think. The buildings are taller and there are more of them than you think. It spreads out wide and piles up high (downtown). It has plenty of restaurants, museums and theatre ~ and if you're a shopper and you need some "stuff", Michigan Avenue will be more fun than you can stand (or afford). If you stay and play downtown, you can spend a lot of money in short period of time.Traffic is no worse than Boston or New York (so it's bad, but it works - sort of). Yup - Chicago is a real city - bigger than you think. I like Chicago.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Leverage anyone?

If we buy or create a company using a significant amount of borrowed money (bonds, loans - all kinds of promises) to pay for it, we are using leverage. The assets of the company being acquired, in addition to the our assets (or not) are used as collateral for the loans.

The purpose of using this leverage is to allow us to make a large acquisition without having to commit a lot of capital. The deal will most likely require a ratio of 70% debt to 30% equity (90% to 95% isn't crazy) of the target company's total capitalization. The equity component of the purchase price will be supplied by a pool of private equity capital (investors). The investors are the ones who will decide how crazy it is.

The capital can be borrowed through a single source or a combination of sources. In most situations this type of debt will be considered high risk (not unlike some high yield junk bonds - often junkier than that, but there are limitations) . It's also likely that the debt will appear on the new company's balance sheet and the new company's cash flow will be used to repay it. The new entity must make money beyond the amounts paid to investors for the use of the money, or else this isn't going to be all that much fun. It's not for the squeamish. In light of the risk, the return is deservedly handsome. The investor can earn a decent coupon, plus a share of distributable earnings.

These arrangements can take many shapes. As far as I can tell, there is no such thing as a "standard deal". If the plan makes sense, is neatly described, well executed - there is a market for this type of idea - even on a small scale. As long as the winds (things outside of the company's direct control) blow in the right direction - there are attractive returns available. The investor can also get less than expected or worse... nothing.

With a little help from the experienced architects of such arrangements, the possibility exists.

(or not)

Friday, November 2, 2007

Great Stuff - sort of


This material is quite useful. If you prepare properly and get it in the right places, it works nicely.

However, if you get the stuff on your hands or anything else, you've got some problems. It doesn't burn or anything super dangerous, but it is extremely sticky and as sticky stuff will do - it makes a mess.

I sealed up some holes and cracks in a crawlspace foundation. It was awkward down there. The floor was sand (beach house) and before I knew it I had this yuck on my hands, a bit on my cloths and apparently I touched my face a few times. The foundation looked good. I like the way it worked.

Unfortunately, the sand and dirt plus this stuff on my hands, face and clothing was nasty. At first it was kind of funny. When I looked in the mirror, I laughed - ha ha. I started washing the stuff and nothing happened. I mean it didn't budge. I went quickly to the nail polish remover... Nothing! Lacquer thinner and a lot of scrubbing made hardly a dent. I tried mineral spirits, grip solvent (golf grips - It's like paint thinner) - nope. I tried comet, spic and span, lava soap and some other under the kitchen sink elixirs. I used up a half bottle of Goo-Gone in between soapy efforts. By the time I was done, I had knocked the tackiness off, but that was about it. I worked on it with another round of household approaches and more solvents the next day and while it definitely didn't go away, I managed to lighten it up a little.

Well now it has been four days and I still have the stuff on my hands. It's somewhat better now. It's basically wearing off. At least people don't look at me and wonder what sort of silly move did I pull.

If you need to use this stuff, read the label, be careful and USE GLOVES.

Thursday, November 1, 2007

College Brands - Do they matter?

Education is very important. Going to a good college and doing well is important - or at least useful. As adults, people compete against each other at a higher level than ever before. The edge gained from study and from getting a diploma from a well know and respected school can be the difference between getting a good job - or not. Is that true? I guess it is. It sure makes sense doesn't it? Hmmm...

I think it actually is true, but it's not as big a deal as you might think. The college educational process teaches you how to learn on your own. It lets you grow up in a sort of half-way house of life. Your activities are shaped for you (mostly) and your living conditions are not entirely your own responsibility, but you do get to decide how you'll prioritize and how you'll govern your own priorities. This is a huge part of learning and education.

Assuming that most colleges provide access to good information and deliver it in an effective way. I think the "big brand" school is overrated relative to the outcome a kid can expect several years into his/her life. That initial job or two might get influenced by the school's brand name, but once in there I think it's entirely up to the young man or woman what they do with it. I have hired people with credentials - including degrees from a brand college - but after that, the sheepskin, the college brand name the whole concept goes out the window, never to be considered again. Never! You keep learning and getting better. You make something happen - or not. It's that simple. The school's influence is / was a factor, but in reality - (in real life) is wildly overrated.

The competition for a spot in a brand school is fierce. Really good smart and dedicated kids; ones that will eventually be winners in a competitive world, are getting freaked out by the admissions process and the pressure to get a highbrow school to accept them. Once in, they feel more pressure to meet their own high expectations. I think a good student will apply her own pressure, regardless of the college brand.

I though this effort (below) by Seth Godin was pretty well presented.


What if I told you about an industry which:

  • Indebts most of its customers, sometimes for twenty or more years a person
  • Not only consumes most of four years of its customer's time, but impacts its prospects for years before even interacting with them
  • Enjoys extremely strong brand preferences between competitors and has virtually no successful generic substitutes
  • Dramatically alters relations within a family, often for generations
  • Doesn't do it on purpose

...and according to most of the studies I've seen, there's very little or no difference in the efficacy of one competitor vs. another.

Of course, I'm talking about undergraduate colleges in the US.
The most competitive colleges are as competitive as ever--in most cases, more so. Many admit only one in ten students. According to two senior officials at Swarthmore, the differences among the 'good enough' applicants is basically zero. Rather than putting tens of thousands of kids through insane anxiety, they wonder, why not just put all the 'good enough' students in a pool and pick the winners randomly?

Here's the amazing part: According to The Chosen, an exhaustive study of college admissions, there's no measurable difference between the outcomes of education with the most exclusive schools and the next few tiers. Graduates don't end up happier. They don't end up with better paying jobs. They don't end up richer or even healthier. The whole thing is a sham (which costs a quarter of a million dollars a person at the top end).

There's no question that a Harvard degree helps (or is even required) in a few fields. There's also no doubt that spending four years at Yale is a mind-changing experience. The question isn't, "are they wonderful?" The question is, "Is it worth it?"

It's almost as if every single high school student and her parents insisted on having a $200,000 stereo because it was better than the $1,000 stereo. Sure, it might be a bit better, but is it better enough?

Boomer parents have bought in to the marketing hype at a level rarely seen in any other form of marketing. They push school districts, teachers and their kids to perform pointless tasks at extreme levels just to be admitted to the 'right' school, even though there's hardly evidence that the right school does anything but boost their egos.

Schools respond by spending a fortune on facilities that will increase their rankings in various faux polls, even though there's no evidence at all that a better gym or a bigger library matters one bit to an undergraduate's long-term success in life.

If it weren't so expensive (in terms of time and money) it would make a marvelous marketing case study. Add in the tears and wasted anxiety and it's really a shame. Very few people are pointing out that the emperor is barely clothed, and those that do (like me, I guess) get yelled at.
I'm not criticizing a college education per se. No, it's clear that that's a smart investment. I'm talking about the incremental cost (and anxiety) separating consumers of the 'top' 500 schools from students of the 'top' 50. It appears to be pure storytelling, a story that so appeals to the worldview of baby boomers with teens that they are absolutely unable to resist the story, despite the facts.

High school students are thrust into a Dip, in some cases the biggest one of their lives. The Dip extracts significant costs along the way, and then ends with a giant spin of the roulette wheel. I wonder if we're marketing ourselves to a dead end.

I guess I'd do two things. First, I'd figure out how to teach parents to understand what really matters and what doesn't about time spent in high school and the choice of a college. Second, I'd push for every selective college to share one application and do a draft similar to the one they do for medical residencies. Every applicant ranks the schools they'd like to attend, in order. Every school considers all the applications, grabs the students they'd love to have in priority order, puts the rest into the "good enough" pile and lets a computer sort em all out as pareto optimally as possible. At least kids will go into their twenties correctly blaming a computer instead of mistakenly blaming themselves.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Any hat color is okay if it has a "B" on it.

The Red Sox won the World Series and they had a parade-like thing in Boston today. The talk radio guys were scoffing at what they called the "pink hat" crowd. By that they are referring to women and also to those people who don't know the game of baseball as well as "real baseball folks".

A guy called in to say how much he appreciated the parade and the fact that the players were such good characters. In an attempt to engage the guys on the radio, the caller tried to ask a question about who the Red Sox might sign as a pitcher for next year. The question was obviously from a guy who wasn't an authority on the subject. He talked about a particular player from a particular team (Santana / Twins), except that he mentioned Sanatana and the Indians. Hey - maybe the caller just got nervous or maybe he misspoke, but as soon as he did - the talk radio guys noted his mistake, cut him off (hung up) and laughed at him. Then one of them said, "pink hatter for sure".

The Red Sox and "Red Sox Nation" as it is often called, has lots of women in it. Lots of kids, and lots of people who find themselves drawn to the team for many reasons. Ownership has done an outstanding job - not just fielding a winning team, but promoting its players, the old ball park (fixed up) and most of all, its brand. Pink Haters are great supporters and the newest fans. They are women (girls) and kids and new fans who don't know jack about subtle positioning issues or what changes when the pitcher gets ahead 2 and 0. These people watch the games, buy the souvenirs and get excited to see Jacoby Ellsbury. The get excited about Ellsbury because he's young, good looking and not at all a pretentious big money athlete. He is a big hit with all the fans, but in particular these pink hats are dizzy about him.

Six years ago, my daughter and I were at a game and I was explaining the basics. All of a sudden, she said, "Oh my god, it's just like kickball". She goes to college in Boston now. Since 2001, she has averaged about a dozen games a year, watches a lot more of them on TV, buys t-shirts, eats big fat Remdogs, has a crush on Jacoby Ellsbury, and yes - she owns a pink hat that we bought back in 2001. She has also heard the jabs and bought herself a blue one; a fitted one to boot. She went to the parade today and took pictures, and waved to the players, and she was happy. She swore Theo looked right at her and waved.

By talking down to an important - sincere group of fans the radio guys are insulting more than just the pink hats. The game, the experience and sports in general isn't just for the pundits and the loud mouths who think they know what they're talking about. Red Sox ownership knows this and they love the new group. No matter how in tune you are with the inside workings of the game or management's contract strategies, you can still enjoy baseball and if you want to - go ahead and get a pink hat.




Monday, October 29, 2007

Turkey Leg

After much study, we have determined that there is no easy way to eat a turkey leg. It seems like an odd thing to try and make into fast food. However, turkeys come with legs and since turkey breast is so popular, there are millions of turkey legs hanging around. There's one leg for every breast - but, I'll bet you already knew that. Accordingly,they're in expensive. Aha!

Sunday, October 28, 2007

FUDOSHIN

A spirit of unshakable calm and determination,
courage without recklessness,
rooted stability in both mental and physical realms.
Like a willow tree,
powerful roots deep in the ground
and a soft yielding resistance against the winds that blow through it.
~Fudoshin~

Saturday, October 27, 2007

Calorie Boy


Don't tell me how many calories are in a serving. What the hell is a serving? I'd like to know how many calories are in a regular - this is how they sell it, how I see it and how I eat it - portion.

Okay - try this:
A chicken breast about the size and thickness of your hand(ish) weighs about 8 ounces and has about 360 calories. The same size steak - say a nice sirloin, has about 600 calories and a big fat burger (say 8 ounces - and you know we've made'm bigger) even without the cheese or a bun, delivers 650 calories. An apple or an banana has about 100 calories. An egg has about 75 calories.



Thursday, October 25, 2007

Skunk is underrated

I like the smell of skunk. Not fresh right here live oh my stink-bag skunk. I like skunk-lite. Perhaps one has been run over up the road a piece. That kind of skunk smell isn't really bad at all. It's kinda nice. Maybe that's just me.

This post clearly isn't worth ten bucks. At best, I'd give it $1.25.

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Consider a new religion?

I was considering starting my own religion. You know, make up the rules, decide what the rituals would be, determine what things were taboo, and stuff like that. I would of course be the Chief. Actually, "Chief" isn't a good title. I'd have to do better than that. I think I would need a very clever hat to get any respect from the competition. The problem is that it would probably take a couple of hundred years to get many millions of people signed up. That's too long. In spite of my status as Chief (to be changed to something better), I will probably be dead; unless I come up with some very special stuff.

So I guess I'll pass on that idea.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Raymond Crowe and the shadow puppet video

This has been around for a while. You may have already seen it. If you have not - enjoy. I think it's pretty good.


Enjoy!

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

This guy is having some fun

Creativity, commitment and the willingness to do it - show up and do it.

Future - Much like the present

Often (almost always) people incorrectly see the future as very similar to the present. The tendency is to significantly underestimate what will be different. This is a useful piece of information because it's true. However, changing the way you think is difficult if not impossible. One way this information can be used to our advantage is to see how others stumble over this cognitive flaw, and recognize when the error can be exploited for profit.

Monday, October 22, 2007

Hero

It might not be a genre that you would choose. However, I think if you give yourself a chance to like it - you will. "Hero" is really quite good. Really.

Good Cause


So the high school baseball team alumni form a group, raise $50,000 and rebuild the high school baseball field. I learned that one of the alums is a stand up comedian and he arranged for the baseball fund raising group to hold a 50/50 raffle at one of his performances at a local club. A gifted woman (most likely purchased gifts) offered to help run around the audience with two other baseball fund raisers selling tickets. The woman (I think she was a current player's mom) sold significantly more tickets than the others. The woman agreed to sell tickets at the next event - a diner in October.

I went to the next event and watched the woman do her thing. If you bought twenty bucks worth, she did a couple of little joy jumps. Of course she knew the drill and loved the attention. She sold a lot of tickets. Why not?

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Grasshopper - Edge

Don't look for a competitive edge by cutting the margins. Instead of assuming that your customers will correctly weigh your price and recognize "a better deal" (they probably won't - crazy huh?), create a policy where at the slightest hint of any failure to meet expectations, you leap to the rescue without hesitation to deliver a remedy and an extra something (bonus with value).

Demonstrate how much "getting it right" means to you. This investment will pay handsome dividends.

Friday, October 19, 2007

Jose Ramirez Guitar and eBay


I sold my Jose Ramirez guitar to a fellow from Paris. I gave a decent description, praised it as expected, and pointed out its shortcoming (scratches etc). I put a dozen pictures up there too. I assumed that anyone willing to buy this type of instrument would have a pretty good idea what they were looking at.

Along the way I fielded questions from Hawaii, Australia, Denmark, England and even back in Spain where the thing was made.

I'm not sure what my other outlets would be if there were no eBay - especially given that it wasn't cosmetically perfect. Perhaps I could have taken it to a local music store - one that sold good classical guitars. To improve my chances, maybe I could take it to Boston or NY to a higher end store. I'm not sure they would even be interested. I'll bet they would not. So where would I go? Would I put an add in the newspaper or perhaps somewhere else on the web? Hmmm... Is eBay the only viable platform for this transaction? The instrument got world wide exposure and found a home with the highest bidder. The highest bidder in the world. Cool!

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Ocean Blue


A common misconception is that the oceans are blue primarily because the sky is blue. In fact, water has a very slight blue color that can only be seen in large volumes. While the sky's reflection does contribute to the blue appearance of the surface, it is not the primary cause. The primary cause is the absorption by the water molecules' nuclei of red photons from the incoming light, the only known example of color in nature resulting from vibrational, rather than electronic, dynamics.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Arbitrage


Arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a price differential between two or more markets: a combination of matching deals are struck that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, a risk-free profit. A person who engages in arbitrage is called an arbitrageur. The term is mainly applied to trading in financial instruments, such as bonds, stocks, derivatives, commodities and currencies.

If the market prices do not allow for profitable arbitrage, the prices are said to constitute an arbitrage equilibrium or arbitrage free market. An arbitrage equilibrium is a precondition for a general economic equilibrium. The assumption that there is no arbitrage is used in quantitative finance to calculate a unique risk neutral price for a derivatives.

Statistical arbitrage is an imbalance in expected values. A casino has a statistical arbitrage in almost every game of chance that it offers.

Arbitrage is possible when one of three conditions is met:
  1. The same asset does not trade at the same price on all markets ("the law of one price").

  2. Two assets with identical cash flows do not trade at the same price.

  3. An asset with a known price in the future does not today trade at its future price discounted at the risk-free interest rate (or, the asset does not have negligible costs of storage; as such, for example, this condition holds for grain but not for securities).

Arbitrage is not simply the act of buying a product in one market and selling it in another for a higher price at some later time. The transactions must occur simultaneously to avoid exposure to market risk, or the risk that prices may change on one market before both transactions are complete. In practical terms, this is generally only possible with securities and financial products which can be traded electronically.

In the most simple example, any good sold in one market should sell for the same price in another. Traders may, for example, find that the price of wheat is lower in agricultural regions than in cities, purchase the good, and transport it to another region to sell at a higher price. This type of price arbitrage is the most common, but this simple example ignores the cost of transport, storage, risk, and other factors. "True" arbitrage requires that there be no market risk involved. Where securities are traded on more than one exchange, arbitrage occurs by simultaneously buying in one and selling on the other.

Opportunity Cost

In economics, opportunity cost, or economic cost, is the cost of something in terms of an opportunity forgone (and the benefits which could be received from that opportunity), or the most valuable forgone alternative (or highest-valued option forgone), i.e. the second best alternative.

An early representation of the concept of opportunity cost is the "broken window fallacy" illustrated by Frédéric Bastiat in 1850 in his essay "Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas" (That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen) to illuminate the notion of hidden costs (a.k.a. opportunity costs).

Bastiat uses this story to introduce a concept he calls the broken window fallacy, which is related to the law of unintended consequences, in that both involve an incomplete accounting for the consequences of an action. Economists of the Austrian School frequently cite this fallacy, and Henry Hazlitt devoted a chapter to it in his book Economics in One Lesson.

The parable describes a shopkeeper whose window is broken by a little boy. Everyone sympathizes with the man whose window was broken, but pretty soon they start to suggest that the broken window makes work for the glazier, who will then buy bread, benefiting the baker, who will then buy shoes, benefiting the cobbler, etc. Finally, the onlookers conclude that the little boy was not guilty of vandalism; instead he was a public benefactor, creating economic benefits for everyone in town.

Bastiat's original parable of the broken window went like this:

Have you ever witnessed the anger of the good shopkeeper, James Goodfellow, when his careless son happened to break a square of glass? If you have been present at such a scene, you will most assuredly bear witness to the fact, that every one of the spectators, were there even thirty of them, by common consent apparently, offered the unfortunate owner this invariable consolation—"It is an ill wind that blows nobody good. Everybody must live, and what would become of the glaziers if panes of glass were never broken?"

Now, this form of condolence contains an entire theory, which it will be well to show up in this simple case, seeing that it is precisely the same as that which, unhappily, regulates the greater part of our economical institutions.

Suppose it cost six francs to repair the damage, and you say that the accident brings six francs to the glazier's trade—that it encourages that trade to the amount of six francs—I grant it; I have not a word to say against it; you reason justly. The glazier comes, performs his task, receives his six francs, rubs his hands, and, in his heart, blesses the careless child. All this is that which is seen.

But if, on the other hand, you come to the conclusion, as is too often the case, that it is a good thing to break windows, that it causes money to circulate, and that the encouragement of industry in general will be the result of it, you will oblige me to call out, "Stop there! Your theory is confined to that which is seen; it takes no account of that which is not seen."

It is not seen that as our shopkeeper has spent six francs upon one thing, he cannot spend them upon another. It is not seen that if he had not had a window to replace, he would, perhaps, have replaced his old shoes, or added another book to his library. In short, he would have employed his six francs in some way, which this accident has prevented.

Fallacy of the argument:
The fallacy of the onlookers' argument is that they considered only the positive benefits of purchasing a new window, but they ignored the hidden costs to the shopkeeper. As the shopkeeper was forced to spend his money on a new window, he obviously could not have spent it on something else. For example, the shopkeeper may have intended to replenish his inventory, but now cannot do so for he must fix his window. The lack of inventory may drive customers to a competing shopkeeper, who gains at the other's loss.

Further, the extent of the damage may have required the shopkeeper to close his business until the damage was repaired, costing him revenue while still having expenses for rent and utilities.

Thus, the child did not bring any net benefit to the town. Instead, he made the town poorer by at least the value of one window, if not more.


There you have it - Go figure...

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Monday, October 15, 2007

Hogan - by Dodson


I met James Dodson (author of Ben Hogan - An American Life) at a diner hosted by the Donald Ross Society held back in April in North Carolina (Pine Needles). The Ross folks are a good bunch of guys, but who cares? I'm not a member but, I was invited apparently for my charm - as was Mr. Dodson. Anyway - I found Dodson to be an interesting guy. I gathered that he really took the Hogan book seriously. I appreciate that. The book is very well done.

For a big fat book, it moved right along. I was pleasantly surprised to see that Dodson managed to tell the story without making too many things up or coloring too much. I got the sense that he wanted to, but resisted and stuck to the task. He has a very pleasant writing style. I suspect I'll read more of his work. Well done James.

Sunday, October 14, 2007

I think I'm done


Is it a bad thing or a good thing?


I've never really played well enough for long enough to take my game to the level I had hoped to. Shooting 74 on a good day is about all I expect now. Some people think that's pretty good. I just don't. Okay - it's not bad. It's better than most people can do, but so what. 74 will win some matches , but it's not good enough to really compete with good players. I actually can't remember feeling like I had enough game to control my ball and get under par. I've come up with 80 or worse (a lot of that lately - when) in competition too many times. If I'm hitting my irons well (for the day), I can hope for 76 or 78. 17 year old kids blow it by me off the tee. I can't remember struggling with my irons as badly as I have recently. I'm really disgusted with how I'm playing. I question whether this is any fun. Maybe I just don't want to play anymore. Maybe I'm bored with it. It takes so much time, energy and money to play this game. Isn't there something else I can do? Maybe breaking up with the game makes sense now. Maybe I can play a few times a year and that will be fine? Maybe I'm done trying to compete? I can't see spending $6,000 a year on a country club membership and not enjoying it. I think I'm done. Maybe some day, I'll come back... or not.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Clever

Clever is an attribute most often bundled with other less attractive qualities. If it happens to be a person's primary tool - be careful - be afraid - run. With a willingness to take shortcuts or use deceitful tactics, and knowing how to cover the tracks, the undesirable effects of cleverness can offset or even overshadow the benefits.

Monday, October 8, 2007

The blue and red businesses are both closed now

I had observed the opening of two non-franchised used car businesses on opposite sides of town. I'll call one the blue business (their signs were blue) and the other the red business (yup - red signs). Both locations appeared adequate. Given a choice, I liked the blue business spot much better. It had slightly better visibility, more parking and it seemed to be "nicer".

The red business opened first, followed a few months later by the blue business. The red business was planted on a busy road in a building that most likely was a residence at one time. It was modified to be a used car lot and I would say they did a pretty good job. The blue business did (in my opinion) a little bit better job tidying up the property and renovating the facility. Their building was clearly not a redone residence. I thought they had an advantage. I really liked the setup of the blue business. Both businesses looked to inventory 50 or so retail ready cars and trucks.

About a month or so ago, the red business closed up shop and the property put up for sale. So much of that business is management, you can't blame the location. The fellow(s) probably just couldn't get it done.

Yesterday, I drove by the spiffy blue business... Closed - gone - left town - a realtor's for sale sign took the place of the blue sign.

I liked that blue business. I was envious (sort of). He seemed to have grabbed a good spot and done it up nicely. I wonder what happened there? Perhaps it's a bad business to be in right now.

Hmmm...

Friday, October 5, 2007

Large diet coke please!


Are you kidding me? You are, aren't you?

The September new jobs number came out today and the economy generated 110,000 new jobs. This was a little more than expected. However, in August the actual number surprised everyone and instead of the 100,000 plus - a loss of 4,000 jobs was reported. See "and a small diet coke please" posted on September 7th.

Well not only did they report September's number today, but the poor results from August were said to have been incorrect (revised). There was actually a gain of more than 80,000 jobs in September, not a loss of 4,000. The markets liked the taste of that news and everyone ordered desert.

Make that a large diet coke with extra vitamins and minerals please. Oh, with Splenda as the sweetener and if possible, a shot of caffeine or maybe a big scoop of Haagen-dazs.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Oh Bartender!


I watched...

She moves hurriedly behind the bar trying to keep up. She occasionally falls behind when the service side grabs her attention. She appears to be doing her best to please everyone - tossing out an "I'm sorry", or "I'll be right there". It seems like she needs help, but she insists that she doesn't. She fights her way through the backlog as she picks up her pace. She delivers the drinks quickly and moves on to the next. Occasionally, she will deliver drink number two or three to a bar customer instructed by just a nod. When she catches up, she'll ring in the drinks she has served on the fly that she didn't ring in before. Sometimes she might miss one here and there. After all the tabs are many and she's very busy.

In moments when she isn't preparing a drink, she keeps the counter and equipment clean and flashes a pretty smile. When the bar customer is done, she will often charge him for one or two beers when he had three or four. She's just charging what's on the tab.

She uses the frenzy of the rush and the timing of her transaction recognition (ring up that tab) to be in temporary disarray. While she would not charge a customer and pocket the money - that would be stealing (oh no never) - she manages to let the bar customer get more than he paid for. The bar customer wins. She gives the impression and he believes that the bar tender is "taking care" of him. What a nice gal. He leaves a fat tip, probably the equivalent of that extra drink that got lost in the shuffle.

She is not frantic and confused and doing her best to cope. She doesn't want or need help at the bar because that ruins her act. She plays dumb, but by shifting the cash from a purchase to a tip, she is clever and she is stealing. Oh yes she is.

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Ahhhh... Maps. I love maps



There is a lot of detail in here, and even though it looks too complicated to be useful, I don't think it is. Actually, it makes pretty good sense in many ways. It's an attempt to address the pieces. I really appreciate the effort here. Thanks.

An Internet Marketing Map