Any hat color is okay if it has a "B" on it.

The Red Sox won the World Series and they had a parade-like thing in Boston today. The talk radio guys were scoffing at what they called the "pink hat" crowd. By that they are referring to women and also to those people who don't know the game of baseball as well as "real baseball folks".

A guy called in to say how much he appreciated the parade and the fact that the players were such good characters. In an attempt to engage the guys on the radio, the caller tried to ask a question about who the Red Sox might sign as a pitcher for next year. The question was obviously from a guy who wasn't an authority on the subject. He talked about a particular player from a particular team (Santana / Twins), except that he mentioned Sanatana and the Indians. Hey - maybe the caller just got nervous or maybe he misspoke, but as soon as he did - the talk radio guys noted his mistake, cut him off (hung up) and laughed at him. Then one of them said, "pink hatter for sure".

The Red Sox and "Red Sox Nation" as it is often called, has lots of women in it. Lots of kids, and lots of people who find themselves drawn to the team for many reasons. Ownership has done an outstanding job - not just fielding a winning team, but promoting its players, the old ball park (fixed up) and most of all, its brand. Pink Haters are great supporters and the newest fans. They are women (girls) and kids and new fans who don't know jack about subtle positioning issues or what changes when the pitcher gets ahead 2 and 0. These people watch the games, buy the souvenirs and get excited to see Jacoby Ellsbury. The get excited about Ellsbury because he's young, good looking and not at all a pretentious big money athlete. He is a big hit with all the fans, but in particular these pink hats are dizzy about him.

Six years ago, my daughter and I were at a game and I was explaining the basics. All of a sudden, she said, "Oh my god, it's just like kickball". She goes to college in Boston now. Since 2001, she has averaged about a dozen games a year, watches a lot more of them on TV, buys t-shirts, eats big fat Remdogs, has a crush on Jacoby Ellsbury, and yes - she owns a pink hat that we bought back in 2001. She has also heard the jabs and bought herself a blue one; a fitted one to boot. She went to the parade today and took pictures, and waved to the players, and she was happy. She swore Theo looked right at her and waved.

By talking down to an important - sincere group of fans the radio guys are insulting more than just the pink hats. The game, the experience and sports in general isn't just for the pundits and the loud mouths who think they know what they're talking about. Red Sox ownership knows this and they love the new group. No matter how in tune you are with the inside workings of the game or management's contract strategies, you can still enjoy baseball and if you want to - go ahead and get a pink hat.

Turkey Leg

After much study, we have determined that there is no easy way to eat a turkey leg. It seems like an odd thing to try and make into fast food. However, turkeys come with legs and since turkey breast is so popular, there are millions of turkey legs hanging around. There's one leg for every breast - but, I'll bet you already knew that. Accordingly,they're in expensive. Aha!

FUDOSHIN

A spirit of unshakable calm and determination,

courage without recklessness,
rooted stability in both mental and physical realms.

Like a willow tree,

powerful roots deep in the ground

and a soft yielding resistance against the winds that blow through it.

~Fudoshin~

Calorie Boy

Don't tell me how many calories are in a serving. What the hell is a serving? I'd like to know how many calories are in a regular - this is how they sell it, how I see it and how I eat it - portion.

Okay - try this:

A chicken breast about the size and thickness of your hand(ish) weighs about 8 ounces and has about 360 calories. The same size steak - say a nice sirloin, has about 600 calories and a big fat burger (say 8 ounces - and you know we've made'm bigger) even without the cheese or a bun, delivers 650 calories. An apple or an banana has about 100 calories. An egg has about 75 calories.

Skunk is underrated

I like the smell of skunk. Not fresh right here live oh my stink-bag skunk. I like skunk-lite. Perhaps one has been run over up the road a piece. That kind of skunk smell isn't really bad at all. It's kinda nice. Maybe that's just me.

This post clearly isn't worth ten bucks. At best, I'd give it $1.25.

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Consider a new religion?

I was considering starting my own religion. You know, make up the rules, decide what the rituals would be, determine what things were taboo, and stuff like that. I would of course be the Chief. Actually, "Chief" isn't a good title. I'd have to do better than that. I think I would need a very clever hat to get any respect from the competition. The problem is that it would probably take a couple of hundred years to get many millions of people signed up. That's too long. In spite of my status as Chief (to be changed to something better), I will probably be dead; unless I come up with some very special stuff.

So I guess I'll pass on that idea.

Raymond Crowe and the shadow puppet video

This has been around for a while. You may have already seen it. If you have not - enjoy. I think it's pretty good.


Enjoy!

This guy is having some fun

Creativity, commitment and the willingness to do it - show up and do it.

Check out the video story

Future - Much like the present

Often (almost always) people incorrectly see the future as very similar to the present. The tendency is to significantly underestimate what will be different. This is a useful piece of information because it's true. However, changing the way you think is difficult if not impossible. One way this information can be used to our advantage is to see how others stumble over this cognitive flaw, and recognize when the error can be exploited for profit.

Hero

It might not be a genre that you would choose. However, I think if you give yourself a chance to like it - you will. "Hero" is really quite good. Really.

Good Cause

So the high school baseball team alumni form a group, raise $50,000 and rebuild the high school baseball field. I learned that one of the alums is a stand up comedian and he arranged for the baseball fund raising group to hold a 50/50 raffle at one of his performances at a local club. A gifted woman (most likely purchased gifts) offered to help run around the audience with two other baseball fund raisers selling tickets. The woman (I think she was a current player's mom) sold significantly more tickets than the others. The woman agreed to sell tickets at the next event - a diner in October.

I went to the next event and watched the woman do her thing. If you bought twenty bucks worth, she did a couple of little joy jumps. Of course she knew the drill and loved the attention. She sold a lot of tickets. Why not?

Grasshopper - Edge

Don't look for a competitive edge by cutting the margins. Instead of assuming that your customers will correctly weigh your price and recognize "a better deal" (they probably won't - crazy huh?), create a policy where at the slightest hint of any failure to meet expectations, you leap to the rescue without hesitation to deliver a remedy and an extra something (bonus with value).

Demonstrate how much "getting it right" means to you. This investment will pay handsome dividends.

Jose Ramirez Guitar and eBay

I sold my Jose Ramirez guitar to a fellow from Paris. I gave a decent description, praised it as expected, and pointed out its shortcoming (scratches etc). I put a dozen pictures up there too. I assumed that anyone willing to buy this type of instrument would have a pretty good idea what they were looking at.

Along the way I fielded questions from Hawaii, Australia, Denmark, England and even back in Spain where the thing was made.

I'm not sure what my other outlets would be if there were no eBay - especially given that it wasn't cosmetically perfect. Perhaps I could have taken it to a local music store - one that sold good classical guitars. To improve my chances, maybe I could take it to Boston or NY to a higher end store. I'm not sure they would even be interested. I'll bet they would not. So where would I go? Would I put an add in the newspaper or perhaps somewhere else on the web? Hmmm... Is eBay the only viable platform for this transaction? The instrument got world wide exposure and found a home with the highest bidder. The highest bidder in the world. Cool!

Ocean Blue

A common misconception is that the oceans are blue primarily because the sky is blue. In fact, water has a very slight blue color that can only be seen in large volumes. While the sky's reflection does contribute to the blue appearance of the surface, it is not the primary cause. The primary cause is the absorption by the water molecules' nuclei of red photons from the incoming light, the only known example of color in nature resulting from vibrational, rather than electronic, dynamics.

Arbitrage

Arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a price differential between two or more markets: a combination of matching deals are struck that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, a risk-free profit. A person who engages in arbitrage is called an arbitrageur. The term is mainly applied to trading in financial instruments, such as bonds, stocks, derivatives, commodities and currencies.

If the market prices do not allow for profitable arbitrage, the prices are said to constitute an arbitrage equilibrium or arbitrage free market. An arbitrage equilibrium is a precondition for a general economic equilibrium. The assumption that there is no arbitrage is used in quantitative finance to calculate a unique risk neutral price for a derivatives.

Statistical arbitrage is an imbalance in expected values. A casino has a statistical arbitrage in almost every game of chance that it offers.

Arbitrage is possible when one of three conditions is met:

1. The same asset does not trade at the same price on all markets ("the law of one price").
   


2. Two assets with identical cash flows do not trade at the same price.
   


3. An asset with a known price in the future does not today trade at its future price discounted at the risk-free interest rate (or, the asset does not have negligible costs of storage; as such, for example, this condition holds for grain but not for securities).

Arbitrage is not simply the act of buying a product in one market and selling it in another for a higher price at some later time. The transactions must occur simultaneously to avoid exposure to market risk, or the risk that prices may change on one market before both transactions are complete. In practical terms, this is generally only possible with securities and financial products which can be traded electronically.

In the most simple example, any good sold in one market should sell for the same price in another. Traders may, for example, find that the price of wheat is lower in agricultural regions than in cities, purchase the good, and transport it to another region to sell at a higher price. This type of price arbitrage is the most common, but this simple example ignores the cost of transport, storage, risk, and other factors. "True" arbitrage requires that there be no market risk involved. Where securities are traded on more than one exchange, arbitrage occurs by simultaneously buying in one and selling on the other.

Opportunity Cost

In economics, opportunity cost, or economic cost, is the cost of something in terms of an opportunity forgone (and the benefits which could be received from that opportunity), or the most valuable forgone alternative (or highest-valued option forgone), i.e. the second best alternative.

An early representation of the concept of opportunity cost is the "broken window fallacy" illustrated by Frédéric Bastiat in 1850 in his essay "Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas" (That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen) to illuminate the notion of hidden costs (a.k.a. opportunity costs).

Bastiat uses this story to introduce a concept he calls the broken window fallacy, which is related to the law of unintended consequences, in that both involve an incomplete accounting for the consequences of an action. Economists of the Austrian School frequently cite this fallacy, and Henry Hazlitt devoted a chapter to it in his book Economics in One Lesson.

The parable describes a shopkeeper whose window is broken by a little boy. Everyone sympathizes with the man whose window was broken, but pretty soon they start to suggest that the broken window makes work for the glazier, who will then buy bread, benefiting the baker, who will then buy shoes, benefiting the cobbler, etc. Finally, the onlookers conclude that the little boy was not guilty of vandalism; instead he was a public benefactor, creating economic benefits for everyone in town.

Bastiat's original parable of the broken window went like this:

Have you ever witnessed the anger of the good shopkeeper, James Goodfellow, when his careless son happened to break a square of glass? If you have been present at such a scene, you will most assuredly bear witness to the fact, that every one of the spectators, were there even thirty of them, by common consent apparently, offered the unfortunate owner this invariable consolation—"It is an ill wind that blows nobody good. Everybody must live, and what would become of the glaziers if panes of glass were never broken?"

Now, this form of condolence contains an entire theory, which it will be well to show up in this simple case, seeing that it is precisely the same as that which, unhappily, regulates the greater part of our economical institutions.

Suppose it cost six francs to repair the damage, and you say that the accident brings six francs to the glazier's trade—that it encourages that trade to the amount of six francs—I grant it; I have not a word to say against it; you reason justly. The glazier comes, performs his task, receives his six francs, rubs his hands, and, in his heart, blesses the careless child. All this is that which is seen.

But if, on the other hand, you come to the conclusion, as is too often the case, that it is a good thing to break windows, that it causes money to circulate, and that the encouragement of industry in general will be the result of it, you will oblige me to call out, "Stop there! Your theory is confined to that which is seen; it takes no account of that which is not seen."

It is not seen that as our shopkeeper has spent six francs upon one thing, he cannot spend them upon another. It is not seen that if he had not had a window to replace, he would, perhaps, have replaced his old shoes, or added another book to his library. In short, he would have employed his six francs in some way, which this accident has prevented.

Fallacy of the argument:
The fallacy of the onlookers' argument is that they considered only the positive benefits of purchasing a new window, but they ignored the hidden costs to the shopkeeper. As the shopkeeper was forced to spend his money on a new window, he obviously could not have spent it on something else. For example, the shopkeeper may have intended to replenish his inventory, but now cannot do so for he must fix his window. The lack of inventory may drive customers to a competing shopkeeper, who gains at the other's loss.

Further, the extent of the damage may have required the shopkeeper to close his business until the damage was repaired, costing him revenue while still having expenses for rent and utilities.

Thus, the child did not bring any net benefit to the town. Instead, he made the town poorer by at least the value of one window, if not more.


There you have it - Go figure...

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Hogan - by Dodson

I met James Dodson (author of Ben Hogan - An American Life) at a diner hosted by the Donald Ross Society held back in April in North Carolina (Pine Needles). The Ross folks are a good bunch of guys, but who cares? I'm not a member but, I was invited apparently for my charm - as was Mr. Dodson. Anyway - I found Dodson to be an interesting guy. I gathered that he really took the Hogan book seriously. I appreciate that. The book is very well done.

For a big fat book, it moved right along. I was pleasantly surprised to see that Dodson managed to tell the story without making too many things up or coloring too much. I got the sense that he wanted to, but resisted and stuck to the task. He has a very pleasant writing style. I suspect I'll read more of his work. Well done James.

I think I'm done

Is it a bad thing or a good thing?

I've never really played well enough for long enough to take my game to the level I had hoped to. Shooting 74 on a good day is about all I expect now. Some people think that's pretty good. I just don't. Okay - it's not bad. It's better than most people can do, but so what. 74 will win some matches , but it's not good enough to really compete with good players. I actually can't remember feeling like I had enough game to control my ball and get under par. I've come up with 80 or worse (a lot of that lately - when) in competition too many times. If I'm hitting my irons well (for the day), I can hope for 76 or 78. 17 year old kids blow it by me off the tee. I can't remember struggling with my irons as badly as I have recently. I'm really disgusted with how I'm playing. I question whether this is any fun. Maybe I just don't want to play anymore. Maybe I'm bored with it. It takes so much time, energy and money to play this game. Isn't there something else I can do? Maybe breaking up with the game makes sense now. Maybe I can play a few times a year and that will be fine? Maybe I'm done trying to compete? I can't see spending $6,000 a year on a country club membership and not enjoying it. I think I'm done. Maybe some day, I'll come back... or not.

Clever

Clever is an attribute most often bundled with other less attractive qualities. If it happens to be a person's primary tool - be careful - be afraid - run. With a willingness to take shortcuts or use deceitful tactics, and knowing how to cover the tracks, the undesirable effects of cleverness can offset or even overshadow the benefits.

The blue and red businesses are both closed now

I had observed the opening of two non-franchised used car businesses on opposite sides of town. I'll call one the blue business (their signs were blue) and the other the red business (yup - red signs). Both locations appeared adequate. Given a choice, I liked the blue business spot much better. It had slightly better visibility, more parking and it seemed to be "nicer".

The red business opened first, followed a few months later by the blue business. The red business was planted on a busy road in a building that most likely was a residence at one time. It was modified to be a used car lot and I would say they did a pretty good job. The blue business did (in my opinion) a little bit better job tidying up the property and renovating the facility. Their building was clearly not a redone residence. I thought they had an advantage. I really liked the setup of the blue business. Both businesses looked to inventory 50 or so retail ready cars and trucks.

About a month or so ago, the red business closed up shop and the property put up for sale. So much of that business is management, you can't blame the location. The fellow(s) probably just couldn't get it done.

Yesterday, I drove by the spiffy blue business... Closed - gone - left town - a realtor's for sale sign took the place of the blue sign.

I liked that blue business. I was envious (sort of). He seemed to have grabbed a good spot and done it up nicely. I wonder what happened there? Perhaps it's a bad business to be in right now.

Hmmm...

Large diet coke please!

Are you kidding me? You are, aren't you?

The September new jobs number came out today and the economy generated 110,000 new jobs. This was a little more than expected. However, in August the actual number surprised everyone and instead of the 100,000 plus - a loss of 4,000 jobs was reported. See "and a small diet coke please" posted on September 7th.

Well not only did they report September's number today, but the poor results from August were said to have been incorrect (revised). There was actually a gain of more than 80,000 jobs in September, not a loss of 4,000. The markets liked the taste of that news and everyone ordered desert.

Make that a large diet coke with extra vitamins and minerals please. Oh, with Splenda as the sweetener and if possible, a shot of caffeine or maybe a big scoop of Haagen-dazs.

Oh Bartender!

I watched...

She moves hurriedly behind the bar trying to keep up. She occasionally falls behind when the service side grabs her attention. She appears to be doing her best to please everyone - tossing out an "I'm sorry", or "I'll be right there". It seems like she needs help, but she insists that she doesn't. She fights her way through the backlog as she picks up her pace. She delivers the drinks quickly and moves on to the next. Occasionally, she will deliver drink number two or three to a bar customer instructed by just a nod. When she catches up, she'll ring in the drinks she has served on the fly that she didn't ring in before. Sometimes she might miss one here and there. After all the tabs are many and she's very busy.

In moments when she isn't preparing a drink, she keeps the counter and equipment clean and flashes a pretty smile. When the bar customer is done, she will often charge him for one or two beers when he had three or four. She's just charging what's on the tab.

She uses the frenzy of the rush and the timing of her transaction recognition (ring up that tab) to be in temporary disarray. While she would not charge a customer and pocket the money - that would be stealing (oh no never) - she manages to let the bar customer get more than he paid for. The bar customer wins. She gives the impression and he believes that the bar tender is "taking care" of him. What a nice gal. He leaves a fat tip, probably the equivalent of that extra drink that got lost in the shuffle.

She is not frantic and confused and doing her best to cope. She doesn't want or need help at the bar because that ruins her act. She plays dumb, but by shifting the cash from a purchase to a tip, she is clever and she is stealing. Oh yes she is.