Rigorous and careful study, weighing all known factors, generating detailed plans, forecasts and probabilities for success - the venture appears to have significant risk. The decision is made to stop. The search continues. You're smart enough to have avoided the chance of failure.
The back of the napkin essentials looks reasonable. After investigating a few of the key elements, the evidence suggests that the idea is good enough to be in the zone where "you really won't know till you do it, because some things you have to do on the fly." Issues of certainty, confidence and consequence remain. The decision is made to go ahead. You're engaged in the effort and apply your abilities as required. You're dumb enough to find success.
Hmmm... Recognizing the power of the leap, its influence can be calculated (considered).
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