T'is the season

A reasonable point of entry might be when the future looks like crap. Q4 and Q1 are indexed lower, but the slowdown adds to the gloomy atmosphere. This tid from Automotive news is an example of the noise that helps everyone see pain. The perfect point of entry (buying in) would be when good businesses (sadly) have suffered (lowered their expectations / selling price) and the weakest have given up (only working capital is needed). I'm not sure exactly when the time will be right, but it could be soon.

Automotive News November 26, 2007 - 12:01 am EST

At a recent auto summit held by Reuters, three big-time industry investors painted a bleak picture of U.S. auto sales for 2008. One expects sales to plunge to the lowest total in 15 years.

Jerry York, adviser to billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian: 15.5 million units or fewer, down from about 16.1 million this year. "I'm just not sure how bad it could be."

Thomas Stallkamp, former Chrysler president and a key player at the private equity firm Ripplewood Holdings: "I'd say it's somewhere between 14.5 and 15. ... I'm a little more towards 14.5." That would be the lowest total since 1993.

Wilbur Ross, who has assembled an auto parts empire through acquisitions: A drop of a few hundred thousand units next year. The U.S. consumer is "pretty well tapped out," he said.

None of the three predicted a recession for the U.S. economy in 2008. But York said, "It feels like it's on the way."