The Chinese symbol for "Ocean"

The Chinese symbol for "Ocean" is:

You never know when you might need this - so there you have it.

Gekko - Greed Speech (from "Wall Street")

"The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that greed—for lack of a better word—is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms—greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge—has marked the upward surge of mankind. And greed—you mark my words—will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA".

Hmmm... Hey, it's a movie.

Bait & Switch, PETA, and the way it is...

A lot of people consider PETA protests against killing fish (because the fish feel pain) to be silly. It's not that there is a disagreement about whether fish feel pain, it's the fact that most people don't feel bad about it. I mean - we gotta eat. It's the way it is. So those who stand as advocates for the plight of fish are not taken seriously - especially by fisherman. It would be bad form on the part of fisherman or people who eat fish to publicly celebrate the pain they cause, so you don't see much of that.

In the retail auto business (also true for other products), there is no doubt that the most successful advertising tactic is "bait and switch". The dealer features a car at an extremely low price, often considerably less than the vehicle's wholesale cost. The number of vehicles available is much smaller (sometimes just one) than the demand. In addition, the "ad car" is handicapped in some other way - maybe it's a manual transmission (not disclosed), or maybe some other undesirable (also unexpected) quality. How about "you have to pay for it right now with a cashier's check - no financing and no deposits can be accepted." The most common theme is "the ad car is sold - sorry - but we have these others".

You get it... bait and switch. This is a nasty phrase because it suggests a deceitful practice. Consumer watchdogs, government agencies, advocates, and the consumers themselves (once they experience it - if they understand what has happened) consider this a no-no, and it is (if proven) against the law, but alas it's very difficult to prove. In the end the remedy (if pushed hard enough) is usually a settlement by the dealer. Dealers who are good at this will deny it. In some cases, they have actually convinced themselves that they are not deceiving the customers.

You go to buy the 42 inch plasma for $499 or the laptop for $299 - it's just not going to happen. You see; this is what is necessary to "drive traffic", the merchant will say. They know exactly what they're doing. It is the most successful tactic. Some of the most prolific producers in the country are adept practitioners. Yes - there are other strategies and some are effective, but clearly none as effective (with commitment) as this. Let me back up to PETA...

The merchants who apply these strategies see the argument against them in a similar way to how most people see the PETA protests. "I mean - we gotta eat. We have to drive traffic. It's the way it is. Nobody ends up getting less than they pay for. We don't force anyone to do anything. " So those who stand as advocates for the plight of consumers in this situation are not taken seriously by merchants. It's just the way it is out on the open sea.

Maybe you feel like this technique is "just wrong". Maybe you think you would be offended if you were massaged into a transaction by this approach. The fact remains, it is highly effective and will likely remain so. Some manufacturers (Honda for example) have taken steps to prevent it. Honda prohibits advertising of prices below invoice. On the surface, this seems like a noble effort, but in fact (unfortunately) the policy was poorly constructed and in many cases is viewed as PETA-like by the big retailers. Some of those who became wildly successful by using this tactic have gone as far as eating the financial and other penalties dolled out by the manufacturer for violating the policy. That's how important it is to drive traffic. No - it's not the only play, but it's a good one.

Does that make these aggressive, committed to the strategy, no-guilt feeling dealers bad people. I say it does not.

"If it's hanging there and it looks like a very tasty meal and in fact it looks much tastier than any others I've seen, and even though I know it seems too good to be true, and even though I vow to spit it out if it turns out to have a hook in it - I'll bite".

We can't blame the fisherman, can we?

Edmunds article

Review: The Nine Ways

Let's review:

The Nine Ways of Strategy - Musashi - 1643
From~ The Book of Five Rings

1. Do not think dishonestly
2. The way is in training
3. Become acquainted with the arts
4. Know the ways of all professions
5. Distinguish between true gain and loss
6. Develop intuitive judgement
7. Perceive things not seen
8. Pay attention - even to trifles
9. Do nothing which is of no use

There you have it...

Game Changing

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Creating, or disrupting informational asymmetry (one party knows something important that the other does not) in the marketplace is a game changing strategy. Pick one.

Creating:
Some businesses withhold the details on purpose. A good example of an important detail "the price". They force the customer to take the next step which usually means establishing a more isolated exchange; away from immediate comparison or the opportunity for competitive rebuttal. This is clearly an advantage for the seller. Without any interference, this works quite nicely.

Disrupting:
When the standard strategy for any business / industry is based on the seller's withholding of details, finding a way to provide the details can undo the sellers advantage. If the change in the process and the easy access to information matters (to the customer) enough, the game changes. The Internet looms large here.

Maybe it's good

Maybe it's good that your new approach will make some people uncomfortable, threaten the status quo (one in which much money has been made by many), and require broad cultural change in the workforce.

Naaaaa...

Bonds

I bought the book "Game of Shadows" a couple of weeks ago and decided that I would read it when Barry Bonds hit number 756.

Wow! Barry... this is bad news Barry. You are not a nice fellow. Some people are just nasty. That's the way they are. They can't change, They won't change. I think that's Bonds. He has always had amazing talent. If he was a good guy and didn't do the drugs, he would have been awesome, but he has turned himself into a clown. Too bad.

Enough pain to go around

Alrighty then... Let's just say that easy credit terms and conditions turn out to be not such a good thing for the lenders. They were happy when they booked all that "on-the-way-here" income, but now...not so good. As lenders pinch their puckery standards tighter and tighter, the sellers of real estate, cars, and even replacement windows - are going to feel real pain. When these businesses feel pain, they may find it difficult to stay in the game. If they depart, they'll probably not pay all the bills. The creditors feel pain. Yes indeed... there could be enough pain so that we all get a taste. Nice huh?

Lucidity and the facts in the way

We'll search for, find (whenever possible) and use the impressions, emotions or facts in our experience that serve us best or support our current view of "reality". We'll also shape that reality - without even knowing - to be as kind as possible. As it turns out, we humans are naturally quite good at kidding ourselves. This applies to our view of the past, present and future. In particular, our ability to see (predict) the future and make choices about the future, are completely affected by this condition. In other words, we consistently mispredict. It’s really quite amazing how well and how consistently we do this.

We'll find a logical basis for dismissing objects that don't fit. This is an extremely important thing to realize. Accepting this condition and using it to help prevent us from acting on a distorted (bordering on delusional) reality, and knowing that others do, represents a competitive edge.

More later...

That's good

Sure, fine, okay, alright, yes, pick it up, no sweat, please, oh how nice indeed, thanks, really special... really.

Storing Experiences

Our brains store our experiences. If we were to record and retain complete detail of every event (the whole movie), all that information - including color, sound, time sequence and dialogue - would occupy a lot of storage space. Instead, we store key objects, emotions and enough detail so that we can recall the set and piece together our recollection of the experience as if it were complete.

Can we manage to plant, generate or influence the key objects stored by customers and in so doing, program a memory?

Take a Left

We navigate with great intensity toward a location that is uncertain at best and at worst - unknown.

What?

The Leap?

Rigorous and careful study, weighing all known factors, generating detailed plans, forecasts and probabilities for success - the venture appears to have significant risk. The decision is made to stop. The search continues. You're smart enough to have avoided the chance of failure.

The back of the napkin essentials looks reasonable. After investigating a few of the key elements, the evidence suggests that the idea is good enough to be in the zone where "you really won't know till you do it, because some things you have to do on the fly." Issues of certainty, confidence and consequence remain. The decision is made to go ahead. You're engaged in the effort and apply your abilities as required. You're dumb enough to find success.

Hmmm... Recognizing the power of the leap, its influence can be calculated (considered).

Liquid & Patient

The markets sold off heavily today and it feels like there's more to come. Maybe not the end of the world type of selling, but certainly a downward move that will shake off the froth. Yup - a 10% moonwalk may be in the cards. That won't be fun. It looks like housing is weaker than anticipated and the "bottom" has not yet arrived. In spite of relatively low interest rates, buyers are in short supply and inventories continue to climb. Hmmm... Prices have fallen a bit more with some areas (even those previously resistant) in real pain. It's really a lot about credit, and greed, and denial. The extension of credit to those less qualified and the creativity of the terms are unraveling. Somebody somewhere must have known that not all these silly loans would get paid as agreed. Pain... Real pain is likely here. Well, I guess you can call it real pain - even though it's essentially the head being blown off the brew (froth). There's probably more selling to come. The ill feeling and the underlying concerns are heavy thought s to carry into business.

This yuck is spilling over into autos as AutoNation and a few other big fellows seem to be coming up short. The stale mortgage environment (especially sub prime) is sure to catch up with cars. When people struggle to pay their mortgage, they are likely to struggle with their car payment as well. Lenders will quickly tighten. If dealers can only sell cars to people with good credit, they will struggle. They've had a steady diet of "finance anyone" that will soon dry up. Mike Jackson, CEO of AutoNation Inc., said last week that business conditions have created "one of the toughest environments I've ever seen." In the northeast auto business there are stories about some suffering. It looks like those who were surviving in a strong market (1998 - 2006 was an extended period of good times) are now bleeding in the soft one. You can no longer be clueless and still get by. Some situations; sinking franchise in beefy real estate, or maybe a dealer who moved his awareness and involvement to the periphery when things were easy pickings - are causing more problems. The tighter lending standards (forced by years of easy paper) are coming you guys. Don't think it won't happen - it will. Some dealers will try to survive and fail. Some will be fortunate to recover their working capital and get out. Some will take advantage of the herd thinning, and do just fine.

Chrysler came out with a lifetime powertrain warranty today. What? Yup - lifetime, whatever that means. It's an act of desperation. We'll see more of these.

This shake out should produce some opportunities for the liquid and the patient. Hmmm...

"Not a Problem" - Eeeeeeh!

I just don't like it when you thank someone and they respond with "Not a problem". Maybe it's just me, I don't know. Why would that bother me? It probably shouldn't. I mean the responder isn't trying to be a wiseguy or anything. It's just something people say. This is particularly common in service situations - like a waiter etc. where patrons often say thank you. I will suggest that you just go with "You're welcome", or perhaps "My pleasure". Maybe it's just me. Maybe for you it's not a problem.

Wide Turn

I'm makin a wide wide turn, a wide wide turn
I'm makin a wide wide turn and then back to square
I'm seeing a little baby southern to the geo metro
I'm not thinking tempo, just doin it tempo slow
I'm makin a wide turn and then back to square
I'm hangin inside a hair cause it falls that way
Not press'n, not stress'n, just let - set - go

Systems - Go figure

All businesses - make that successful businesses, are systems or sets of systems. A quality system design includes the ability to change. When a business makes a change to a system(s), how it manages the change is yet another system - at least it should be. Go figure.

Fiddy

Whoopdeedoo.

The Newspaper - ba bye

This isn't a stretch, but I have to join those who believe the printed daily newspaper will not survive. It lives because it remains a "business" that can money - lots of it sometimes. Still, it is a highly inefficient use of resources and and equally as inefficient as a tool. You can't line the bird cage with it, but digital media (www) is hands down a better method for managing the same information. It isn't all bad. Picking up the paper and turning the pages - scanning the ads (or not) and noticing things you might otherwise have not, isn't painful - it's just not going to survive. The paper will be replaced by a better thing. Indeed it will.

Even if we just work with a newspaper's web site and assume that all the printed material is presented online, it offers so much more. Searchable and easily archived, the digital versions offer significantly more utility.

Information (searchable or delivered by request) on your device will retire the newspaper. I know this isn't a bold claim, but the pile in my garage is silly. I feel sort if stupid having it there. I'm not sure how long it will take, but at some point we'll look back - perhaps with fond memories - and remember the newspaper.

Well then... I'm sure you'll sleep better now.
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If you have not read them - please do

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If you haven't read "The Catcher in the Rye" (JD Salinger), or "On the Road" (Jack Kerouac), you should. Written and set in another time in America - both are captivating and interesting works, unpretentious and enjoyable. Good books.

Enjoy!
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