Cuppla Quick Steven Wrights

I used to work in a fire hydrant factory. You couldn't park anywhere near the place.

I have the world's largest collection of seashells. I keep it on all the beaches of the world... perhaps you've seen it.

*Price shown includes $3,000 not shown - Whaaat?

Many auto retailers are employing a disclaimer that says:

"Price shown includes $3,000 cash down or trade equity".

These amounts vary, but $3,000 is a popular tuck. It's enough of a buried factor to distort the numbers and make them appear attractive - especially when compared to ads that don't employ the approach. It's also assumed to be within a range where it might be something that can be overcome at the dealership. Yes indeed, the $9,999 price is actually $12,999. The price shown (large print - wow!) is what is left after you pay $3,000 in cash or trade.

...and once you discover this information, will you think:

a.) Oh... okay, since I don't have $3,000 I'll pay another $100/mo instead and still buy a car.

b.) Oh... not okay. This is a troubling revelation. I've been deceived. Not good - not good at all. I'll go somewhere else.

Apparently, an awful lot of you go with "a.)" Because this technique / tactic / strategy is gaining popularity. It generates traffic (showroom visitors) and dealers have to compete hard just for a chance to see you. They're willing to take the risk that you'll be pissed about the deception. They get a chance to tell a story in person - maybe apologize, or blame "other management". One factor that keeps this method in play is that the "perception" of lower prices is assumed to drive much of the traffic. Customers don't necessarily come in looking for the transaction spelled out in the ad. They come with the assumption that this dealer has a wide variety of choices and the prices are low - and no, they didn't even bother to read the disclaimer.

The trend toward deception rises as the market conditions get tougher. Once it gains a foothold, dealers feel like they have to "go there" just to compete. Plenty would prefer not to stoop to these levels. In private, they admit to feeling some guilt, and they criticize the "big guys" for whoring up the business.

Maybe it's just me, but I'm almost certain that at some point - not sure how soon - most people will reject the retailer who "goes there". The approach that welcomes this trend and develops it will find success. Yup - this will happen.

Sorry to trouble you again so soon, but...

Miss O... Excuse me.

I'd like to request that you immediately go stop the insanity happening in the Sudan. I mean really - let the rest of the world hang in there on its own for a day or two and go fix that. We'll wait here until you get back. It's okay - really, we'll be fine - just go.




Thank you!

Yo - Great and Powerful Oprah...

Ohhhh great and powerful Oprah... What's with the bad market behavior?

Ohhhh great and powerful Oprah... Please tell us that this has nothing to do with the Super Bowl.

What are you trying to say here - Hmmm?

Tell us Oh Windy City Wonder, is the bottom here or near?
Will you let us dangle at this angle (sorry about the rhyme - it was not planned)?
Can we convince you to - at the very least - give this matter a "Steadman", pay some attention to and make it feel special?

Come on now - let's see some of that good stuff.

Thank you!

Stepp'n out

I believe I will begin an approach where I wear odd (by conventional standards) clothing. This may include paisley or animal print garments (maybe pants - woaaa...) fringed items, bright colored shoes, and maybe some sort of head gear. I'll create music and art that most people won't like. A few will.

...or not.

Pieces of Species

Oddities:

Have you seen a Crabopotamus?

...or maybe a little bitty kitty?
...or a Piger?

Adobe and some extra time.

A SubPrime thought

Just because some folk's houses are worth less than they paid - or less than they owe, how does that affect their ability to pay?

Well, it doesn't. It seems to be affecting some people's willingness to pay - even if the loan payment amount has remained unchanged. The old story behind most foreclosure's was that the borrower lost his / her job or there was some other unanticipated dent in the cash flow picture. Most people kept trying to keep / catch up, knowing that they had been building equity and that was likely to continue if they kept paying and kept their credit rating intact. With the promise of equity (profit) gone, we're seeing many people choose to stop paying. That explains some of this mess.

Then we have the people for whom the loan payments did change. Not just the ones who did an adjustable - after all rates haven't moved that much - but those who went with (some say , they were sold) a one or two year buy-down type of arrangement. One where the rate was 1% or 0%.

In some deals the rates adjusted after the intro period to a level several points higher than a typical mortgage - even if the prevailing market rates were the same or lower than they were at the time of the loan's origination. I

n some arrangements the deal included negative amortization. This is where a piece of the interest payment that isn't paid each month is added to the amount financed and the actual amount owed grows over the period.

People did this sort of thing because they were counting on; their ability to refinance at the end of the easy period, the continued appreciation in their home's value, the continuation of other low criteria (easy credit / creative) programs.

Creative financing made it easy to buy a house and spend a ton. We could see these things happening. All this drove demand and prices higher - which helped to make the story about "get in any way you can and deal with deferred consequences", look even more sensible.

So the big nasty isn't about people losing jobs or being strapped with unexpected cash flow problems. It's not that the economy is so bad. Nope - While changes in circumstances happen as they always did, we now have the fact that the borrowers don't have the incentive to hang in there, plus the forecast market conditions didn't come true. The conditions went the other way. Loan origination fees and commissions at every level - from the broker to the lender, to those who packaged bundles of loans into securities to be bought and sold, fueled the notion that this was a good idea because there was money to be made.

Folks with resources will refinance and find a way to deal with it, but the one's who were put together, sold on the story, or just not smart enough to consider the downside, will not pay. We'll see most of these loans blow up.

Once the people who are going to punt have punted, the prices will be lower and the criteria for borrowing will be adjusted. Our homes will be worth less than they were during the easy loan frothy period. This will take a while - probably a couple of years. We'll have to get used to the idea.

All this might seem obvious. After all, it's been talked about enough.

Genius

Genius:

A genius is one who shoots at something no one else can see - and hits it. ~Author Unknown

Everyone is a genius at least once a year. The real geniuses simply have their bright ideas closer together. ~Georg Christoph Lichtenberg

I have known no man of genius who had not to pay, in some affliction or defect, either physical or spiritual, for what the gods had given him. ~Max Beerbohm, Zuleika Dobson, 1911

I am convinced all of humanity is born with more gifts than we know. Most are born geniuses and just get de-geniused rapidly. ~Buckminster Fuller

Thousands of geniuses live and die undiscovered - either by themselves or by others. ~Mark Twain

The reluctance to put away childish things may be a requirement of genius. ~Rebecca Pepper Sinkler

Every man of genius is considerably helped by being dead. ~Robert S. Lynd

There is no great genius without some touch of madness. ~Lucius Annaeus Seneca, "On Tranquillity of the Mind," Moral Essays

Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius - and a lot of courage - to move in the opposite direction. ~E.F. Schumacker

SAD?

How crazy is it that the acronym for the condition in which you tire of winter, become irritable and slightly wacky is SAD - for Seasonal Affective Disorder? Yes indeed you do feel sad.

Certainly the label people worked on the description in order to get an acronym. You try out different descriptions that fit and see if the acronym works. Sometimes, you'd like to buy a vowel. If there isn't an acronym registry, there should be. Before you can use one, you would have to make sure it wasn't already in use. So if SAD was already registered by Simply Adorable Dogs, you would be up the creek. You'd have to look and see if WIC - Winter is Crap, is taken.

Oh boy - this is fun huh?

You must be this tall to go on the Equity Market Ride.

You just have to look the other way. You just do.

You should however, look at something. I'm told that closing your eyes is a bad idea. Perhaps you can accept the fact that you'll throw up now and then?

Cuppla Quick Carlins

"One can never know for sure what a deserted area looks like"

"Who decides when the applause should die down? It seems like it's a group decision; everyone begins to say to themselves at the same time, "Well, okay, that's enough of that."

I don't know if this sells cars, but...

My wife's favorite cliche: It's all relative

When the shit hits the fan...

If you are getting depressed thinking about how hard it was to accumulate money to invest, and how easy it seems to disappear as the markets tank; consider this posture and avoid some suffering. This of course assumes you are an investor and not a trader - big difference.

When you entered the market, you bought shares in something. For the sake of clarity, let's say that the market is the market. You bought index funds. So you bought a number of shares - let's call them chips (C) for dollars(D). The number of chips you bought represented a share (a mighty slim one mind you) or a percentage of all values, expectations and things. Sure, the total market is a moving target and things come and go, but essentially you bought a slice of whatever it is.

At the instant you made your purchase (investment), your shares were worth exactly what you paid for them. Let's say your D = $1, and the market (values, expectations and things) is 1,000,000. As an example (your actual share of all equities is significantly smaller, but we'll use this example to conserve ink on zeros and give a better illustration), you now own 1/1,000,000 of everything. Sweet!

D = $1
C= 1
M = 1,000,000

$1=1/1,000,000

The markets advance over time and you can consider what if - you don't do it, but you calculate how many dollars you would have if you cashed in your chips. Your D is indeed greater than where it was when you started. Let's say the markets have advanced 15%. The number of chips remain the same, but if you did cash in, you would have more D.

$1.15 = 1.15/1,150,000

So then... the markets (all values, expectations and things) goes down from there, let's say 26%. Wooaaa! Kill me now. I'm ruined! Sell the children! No more dessert for us. After the sell-off, if you accept that the ratio of your chips to the market (all values, expectations and things) is still the same, consider:

$.85 = 1/850,000

My point is that you're in no better or worse shape than you were when you bought the stuff to begin with, so there is no need to panic - none. Unless of course you need the money now, or soon. In that case, your timing is terrible and yes you have a problem.

The problem though is that you'll be moving your chips from one market to another. You'll go from the market for all values, expectations and things, to the market for cash. Which - had you been in all along would have (as it turns out) been a better choice. While in some ways, everything has connections - markets for different things do move independently. So this fact renders the statement "everything is relative" to be less accurate than suggested.

Right this minute however, would not be the time to lose sight of the fact that your slice of all values, expectations and things is still the same.

This material is not to be considered advice. TenBucksWorth assumes no responsibility for the fact that we have way-oversimplified a complex situation - to the point of obscurity. No - instead, we suggest that you consult Oprah before having any real thoughts of your own.

Tain't the buckle thing

After a 70-ball bucket from a cold matted stall, I must report that the belt buckle idea doesn't seem to be the ticket to the Masters.

I did however, discover that a new set of Callaway irons designed for forgiveness and "workability" (how you get both seems questionable), won't get it done either. The two guys in the stall next to me were perhaps the worst ball-strikers in the country. Sure that's a big assumption. I mean there are certainly some bad efforts out there, but these two guys were near the bottom of the competency scale. What's amazing is that in such a big country, these guys were buddies and they both had the new Callaway sticks. It wasn't a good thing to see, hear or even consider - sorry.

Aha! To the Masters it is...

I had my car's oil changed today. Quick-lube type event. In the waiting room, I flipped open an article in a golf magazine. The article described the turn and the feeling of loading under control. Keep your belt buckle square to the ball for as long as possible. Feel the take-away tension pulling your center off the ball. This sensation indicates that you've loaded properly. You don't want to let your turn move you much beyond that point. If you stay in touch with this feeling, you can encourage control of your club head and still load the energy you need. The belt buckle and club head hit the ball and then go down the target line. Larger - more aggressive moves off the ball may add slightly more club head speed, but you put a lot of pressure on balance, tempo and timing. Prevent yourself from reaching for too much and your timing will be better.

That's it! I'm saved. Okay - now what?

What's the course record here? Maybe I should find Mac O'Grady again, guru-up my game and find my way to Q-school? No, first I'll win several significant amateur events, and then I'll turn pro. No, first I'll turn pro, and then I'll get a condo in Florida and dominate the mini-tours. No, not the mini-tours. I'll skip all that and qualify for the US Open. I'll have to go through local qualifying, but so what. If I win the US Open, I think the prize money is close to $2,000,000. That would help. Oh - and then there's Augusta... The Masters. Sweet! Boy, this is exciting.

Perhaps I'm getting a little ahead of myself here. I think I'll back up just a hair. I'll invest $8 in a large bucket, and take this idea to the heated driving range in the morning. You can't really see where the ball lands because of all the snow, but I should still be able to feel the Masters fever building.
Sweet!

The Brick House

Use of the "Brick Shit House" referenced as "Brick House" (Commodores - 1977) is officially a rarity. Replaced by the convenience and comfort of indoor facilities, the outdoor "house" made of anything is seldom employed. You still see some in camp areas and some way-rural efforts done in wood, but building one of these out of brick - made to stay put and last a long time - doesn't seem like a good idea anymore. Replaced in times of need by the "Port-o-let, Port-o-potty" etc., fans of brick shit houses, have seen the numbers of their objects of fancy dwindle toward extinction. This image of a once quite attractive brick how-dya-doo, doesn't get used much anymore. However, in a pinch...

Oh Henry

I'm speaking with a high voice now - since taking that 3-wood to the satchel a few days ago. Today of course, just for good measure - the markets took a Hillerich & Bradsby - Louisville Slugger, Henry Aaron model (34 inch, 33 ounce, with a natural finish, and thankfully no pine tar) and jammed it up my previously one way street. No it was not good in any way. It was not - oh no.

My clever asset allocation strategies aimed at protecting me from great swings, didn't prevent the 3-wood to the nuts or Hank's visit to my colon. The tide is out my friends. The tide is out.

I'll go now and reread a book about how random things actually are (Nassim Taleb).
Then to conteract the feeling of uselessness, I'll keep repeating "Regression to the mean - Regression to the mean".
Then I'll sell some stuff on Ebay.
Then maybe I'll chant, "Oh Great and Powerful Oprah! Please rally this economy, these markets, the US dollar, and subsequently all my stuff".

I digress...

Can you say, "Boo"

100% true story:

About a year ago there was a former elementary school for sale. It had been decommissioned as a school and the town was selling it off. it was 15,000 square feet of brick building with some (I thought neat) possibilities. I even called in a design and construction fellow I had worked with on some things before to check it out with me. The assumption was that someone would develop the thing as apartments. The numbers seemed to work. At the time, there was another party engaged in the deal so the idea never really went anywhere. Since housing was seemingly on the slide and I have little experience doing this sort of thing, I (we) just let it go.

A year later, it looks like the originally engaged party had backed off and the thing was listed again. This time the price was lowered from $850,000 to $599,000. This suggested that maybe the town was anxious (at least more anxious than they were before). So I drove over just to take another look and see what I could see.

The building was essentially the same as the last time I looked. I drove around back and parked my car. I walked around the back side of the building and peeked in the lower level windows. Again, it was the same as before. I moved around the side and looked up the side entrance stairway. Then I went around toward the front entrance. There is an amazing retaining wall made of stone that's 8 feet high with a railing. It runs about 200 feet all along the front of the school. That alone would probably cost you $100,000 to put up today - maybe more. The walkway in front of the school leads to a set of steps and a fairly substantial entryway - the main entrance to the school with the front doors tucked back several feet inside the building's face.

I moved down the walkway toward the front entrance. I approached the front steps. I was just about to put my foot on the first step when a giant hairy black horned goat leaped out from the recessed area. This isn't a rural area. It's in a residential - somewhat dense - neighborhood. At first I thought it was huge mangy dog, but no. It had horns and was much taller than even a large dog - uglier too. I'd be lying if I didn't mention that I almost shit in pants. I probably would have, but for the fact that I think my bung seized. He scrambled on the icy surface with his hooves clacking and he flew at me so quickly I didn't have time to do jump away. He made some sort of snorting noise, busted a quick move and avoided me by inches. He pounded off toward the opposite end of the building. I stood and watched him run away. What the hell was that?

I'm sure I'll have nightmares now. Geez...

Who can hate me next?

I'm trying to think who might hate who next, and then consider what it would take to be the hated one. Nice huh?

Encyclopedia salesmen hate wikipedia...
And CNET hates Google
And newspapers hate Craigslist
And music labels hate Napster
And used bookstores hate Amazon
And so do independent bookstores.

Dating services hate Plenty of Fish
And monks hate Gutenberg
And courier services hate fax machines
And the local shoe store hates Zappos

Thanks to Seth for the short hatred list.

Perhaps a 3-wood would be the right club

Can we have a little more bearish activity in the markets? Can we throw another day of selling up there and really sour things up? Can we stir up any more negative sentiment and drive prices even lower?

I've got an idea. How about this...?

I lean back a bit, with my feet about a meter or so apart and tilt my hips a little forward. You take a nice full swing with a golf club (let's go with a 3-wood for maximum club head speed and a better biological fit) making sure you fire your right side in order to square the club face at impact - and hit me solidly, right in the nuts. Do you think you can do that?