Friday, October 19, 2007

Jose Ramirez Guitar and eBay


I sold my Jose Ramirez guitar to a fellow from Paris. I gave a decent description, praised it as expected, and pointed out its shortcoming (scratches etc). I put a dozen pictures up there too. I assumed that anyone willing to buy this type of instrument would have a pretty good idea what they were looking at.

Along the way I fielded questions from Hawaii, Australia, Denmark, England and even back in Spain where the thing was made.

I'm not sure what my other outlets would be if there were no eBay - especially given that it wasn't cosmetically perfect. Perhaps I could have taken it to a local music store - one that sold good classical guitars. To improve my chances, maybe I could take it to Boston or NY to a higher end store. I'm not sure they would even be interested. I'll bet they would not. So where would I go? Would I put an add in the newspaper or perhaps somewhere else on the web? Hmmm... Is eBay the only viable platform for this transaction? The instrument got world wide exposure and found a home with the highest bidder. The highest bidder in the world. Cool!

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Ocean Blue


A common misconception is that the oceans are blue primarily because the sky is blue. In fact, water has a very slight blue color that can only be seen in large volumes. While the sky's reflection does contribute to the blue appearance of the surface, it is not the primary cause. The primary cause is the absorption by the water molecules' nuclei of red photons from the incoming light, the only known example of color in nature resulting from vibrational, rather than electronic, dynamics.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Arbitrage


Arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a price differential between two or more markets: a combination of matching deals are struck that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, a risk-free profit. A person who engages in arbitrage is called an arbitrageur. The term is mainly applied to trading in financial instruments, such as bonds, stocks, derivatives, commodities and currencies.

If the market prices do not allow for profitable arbitrage, the prices are said to constitute an arbitrage equilibrium or arbitrage free market. An arbitrage equilibrium is a precondition for a general economic equilibrium. The assumption that there is no arbitrage is used in quantitative finance to calculate a unique risk neutral price for a derivatives.

Statistical arbitrage is an imbalance in expected values. A casino has a statistical arbitrage in almost every game of chance that it offers.

Arbitrage is possible when one of three conditions is met:
  1. The same asset does not trade at the same price on all markets ("the law of one price").

  2. Two assets with identical cash flows do not trade at the same price.

  3. An asset with a known price in the future does not today trade at its future price discounted at the risk-free interest rate (or, the asset does not have negligible costs of storage; as such, for example, this condition holds for grain but not for securities).

Arbitrage is not simply the act of buying a product in one market and selling it in another for a higher price at some later time. The transactions must occur simultaneously to avoid exposure to market risk, or the risk that prices may change on one market before both transactions are complete. In practical terms, this is generally only possible with securities and financial products which can be traded electronically.

In the most simple example, any good sold in one market should sell for the same price in another. Traders may, for example, find that the price of wheat is lower in agricultural regions than in cities, purchase the good, and transport it to another region to sell at a higher price. This type of price arbitrage is the most common, but this simple example ignores the cost of transport, storage, risk, and other factors. "True" arbitrage requires that there be no market risk involved. Where securities are traded on more than one exchange, arbitrage occurs by simultaneously buying in one and selling on the other.

Opportunity Cost

In economics, opportunity cost, or economic cost, is the cost of something in terms of an opportunity forgone (and the benefits which could be received from that opportunity), or the most valuable forgone alternative (or highest-valued option forgone), i.e. the second best alternative.

An early representation of the concept of opportunity cost is the "broken window fallacy" illustrated by Frédéric Bastiat in 1850 in his essay "Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas" (That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen) to illuminate the notion of hidden costs (a.k.a. opportunity costs).

Bastiat uses this story to introduce a concept he calls the broken window fallacy, which is related to the law of unintended consequences, in that both involve an incomplete accounting for the consequences of an action. Economists of the Austrian School frequently cite this fallacy, and Henry Hazlitt devoted a chapter to it in his book Economics in One Lesson.

The parable describes a shopkeeper whose window is broken by a little boy. Everyone sympathizes with the man whose window was broken, but pretty soon they start to suggest that the broken window makes work for the glazier, who will then buy bread, benefiting the baker, who will then buy shoes, benefiting the cobbler, etc. Finally, the onlookers conclude that the little boy was not guilty of vandalism; instead he was a public benefactor, creating economic benefits for everyone in town.

Bastiat's original parable of the broken window went like this:

Have you ever witnessed the anger of the good shopkeeper, James Goodfellow, when his careless son happened to break a square of glass? If you have been present at such a scene, you will most assuredly bear witness to the fact, that every one of the spectators, were there even thirty of them, by common consent apparently, offered the unfortunate owner this invariable consolation—"It is an ill wind that blows nobody good. Everybody must live, and what would become of the glaziers if panes of glass were never broken?"

Now, this form of condolence contains an entire theory, which it will be well to show up in this simple case, seeing that it is precisely the same as that which, unhappily, regulates the greater part of our economical institutions.

Suppose it cost six francs to repair the damage, and you say that the accident brings six francs to the glazier's trade—that it encourages that trade to the amount of six francs—I grant it; I have not a word to say against it; you reason justly. The glazier comes, performs his task, receives his six francs, rubs his hands, and, in his heart, blesses the careless child. All this is that which is seen.

But if, on the other hand, you come to the conclusion, as is too often the case, that it is a good thing to break windows, that it causes money to circulate, and that the encouragement of industry in general will be the result of it, you will oblige me to call out, "Stop there! Your theory is confined to that which is seen; it takes no account of that which is not seen."

It is not seen that as our shopkeeper has spent six francs upon one thing, he cannot spend them upon another. It is not seen that if he had not had a window to replace, he would, perhaps, have replaced his old shoes, or added another book to his library. In short, he would have employed his six francs in some way, which this accident has prevented.

Fallacy of the argument:
The fallacy of the onlookers' argument is that they considered only the positive benefits of purchasing a new window, but they ignored the hidden costs to the shopkeeper. As the shopkeeper was forced to spend his money on a new window, he obviously could not have spent it on something else. For example, the shopkeeper may have intended to replenish his inventory, but now cannot do so for he must fix his window. The lack of inventory may drive customers to a competing shopkeeper, who gains at the other's loss.

Further, the extent of the damage may have required the shopkeeper to close his business until the damage was repaired, costing him revenue while still having expenses for rent and utilities.

Thus, the child did not bring any net benefit to the town. Instead, he made the town poorer by at least the value of one window, if not more.


There you have it - Go figure...

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Monday, October 15, 2007

Hogan - by Dodson


I met James Dodson (author of Ben Hogan - An American Life) at a diner hosted by the Donald Ross Society held back in April in North Carolina (Pine Needles). The Ross folks are a good bunch of guys, but who cares? I'm not a member but, I was invited apparently for my charm - as was Mr. Dodson. Anyway - I found Dodson to be an interesting guy. I gathered that he really took the Hogan book seriously. I appreciate that. The book is very well done.

For a big fat book, it moved right along. I was pleasantly surprised to see that Dodson managed to tell the story without making too many things up or coloring too much. I got the sense that he wanted to, but resisted and stuck to the task. He has a very pleasant writing style. I suspect I'll read more of his work. Well done James.

Sunday, October 14, 2007

I think I'm done


Is it a bad thing or a good thing?


I've never really played well enough for long enough to take my game to the level I had hoped to. Shooting 74 on a good day is about all I expect now. Some people think that's pretty good. I just don't. Okay - it's not bad. It's better than most people can do, but so what. 74 will win some matches , but it's not good enough to really compete with good players. I actually can't remember feeling like I had enough game to control my ball and get under par. I've come up with 80 or worse (a lot of that lately - when) in competition too many times. If I'm hitting my irons well (for the day), I can hope for 76 or 78. 17 year old kids blow it by me off the tee. I can't remember struggling with my irons as badly as I have recently. I'm really disgusted with how I'm playing. I question whether this is any fun. Maybe I just don't want to play anymore. Maybe I'm bored with it. It takes so much time, energy and money to play this game. Isn't there something else I can do? Maybe breaking up with the game makes sense now. Maybe I can play a few times a year and that will be fine? Maybe I'm done trying to compete? I can't see spending $6,000 a year on a country club membership and not enjoying it. I think I'm done. Maybe some day, I'll come back... or not.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Clever

Clever is an attribute most often bundled with other less attractive qualities. If it happens to be a person's primary tool - be careful - be afraid - run. With a willingness to take shortcuts or use deceitful tactics, and knowing how to cover the tracks, the undesirable effects of cleverness can offset or even overshadow the benefits.

Monday, October 8, 2007

The blue and red businesses are both closed now

I had observed the opening of two non-franchised used car businesses on opposite sides of town. I'll call one the blue business (their signs were blue) and the other the red business (yup - red signs). Both locations appeared adequate. Given a choice, I liked the blue business spot much better. It had slightly better visibility, more parking and it seemed to be "nicer".

The red business opened first, followed a few months later by the blue business. The red business was planted on a busy road in a building that most likely was a residence at one time. It was modified to be a used car lot and I would say they did a pretty good job. The blue business did (in my opinion) a little bit better job tidying up the property and renovating the facility. Their building was clearly not a redone residence. I thought they had an advantage. I really liked the setup of the blue business. Both businesses looked to inventory 50 or so retail ready cars and trucks.

About a month or so ago, the red business closed up shop and the property put up for sale. So much of that business is management, you can't blame the location. The fellow(s) probably just couldn't get it done.

Yesterday, I drove by the spiffy blue business... Closed - gone - left town - a realtor's for sale sign took the place of the blue sign.

I liked that blue business. I was envious (sort of). He seemed to have grabbed a good spot and done it up nicely. I wonder what happened there? Perhaps it's a bad business to be in right now.

Hmmm...

Friday, October 5, 2007

Large diet coke please!


Are you kidding me? You are, aren't you?

The September new jobs number came out today and the economy generated 110,000 new jobs. This was a little more than expected. However, in August the actual number surprised everyone and instead of the 100,000 plus - a loss of 4,000 jobs was reported. See "and a small diet coke please" posted on September 7th.

Well not only did they report September's number today, but the poor results from August were said to have been incorrect (revised). There was actually a gain of more than 80,000 jobs in September, not a loss of 4,000. The markets liked the taste of that news and everyone ordered desert.

Make that a large diet coke with extra vitamins and minerals please. Oh, with Splenda as the sweetener and if possible, a shot of caffeine or maybe a big scoop of Haagen-dazs.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Oh Bartender!


I watched...

She moves hurriedly behind the bar trying to keep up. She occasionally falls behind when the service side grabs her attention. She appears to be doing her best to please everyone - tossing out an "I'm sorry", or "I'll be right there". It seems like she needs help, but she insists that she doesn't. She fights her way through the backlog as she picks up her pace. She delivers the drinks quickly and moves on to the next. Occasionally, she will deliver drink number two or three to a bar customer instructed by just a nod. When she catches up, she'll ring in the drinks she has served on the fly that she didn't ring in before. Sometimes she might miss one here and there. After all the tabs are many and she's very busy.

In moments when she isn't preparing a drink, she keeps the counter and equipment clean and flashes a pretty smile. When the bar customer is done, she will often charge him for one or two beers when he had three or four. She's just charging what's on the tab.

She uses the frenzy of the rush and the timing of her transaction recognition (ring up that tab) to be in temporary disarray. While she would not charge a customer and pocket the money - that would be stealing (oh no never) - she manages to let the bar customer get more than he paid for. The bar customer wins. She gives the impression and he believes that the bar tender is "taking care" of him. What a nice gal. He leaves a fat tip, probably the equivalent of that extra drink that got lost in the shuffle.

She is not frantic and confused and doing her best to cope. She doesn't want or need help at the bar because that ruins her act. She plays dumb, but by shifting the cash from a purchase to a tip, she is clever and she is stealing. Oh yes she is.

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Ahhhh... Maps. I love maps



There is a lot of detail in here, and even though it looks too complicated to be useful, I don't think it is. Actually, it makes pretty good sense in many ways. It's an attempt to address the pieces. I really appreciate the effort here. Thanks.

An Internet Marketing Map

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Guitar things - Bohemian Rhapsody

An adaptation of Bohemian Rhapsody for classical guitar and some post performance navigation of the fingering. Pretty good stuff.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Ikea - Cool concept, but bad phone strategy

I had a good time exploring Ikea. The concept is interesting. A new angle is something that appeals to me. I bought some stuff, had it shipped and put it together. What money I saved, I contributed in labor and in the end, I think the value wasn't all that much better than what I could do using more conventional channels.



The labor side was complicated by a missing hardware satchel and a couple of missing parts. I was quite surprised to find that there were actually problems in this area. I mean you would think this is a sensitive subject and a well understood "moment of truth". The idea of taking stuff home (sometimes far away) and putting it together is considerably less appealing if you're not confident all the pieces will be there. I still like the approach. The process was pretty cool. If it hadn't been for the missing stuff, I would have been jazzed.



When I discovered my missing bits, I called. It was a useless effort. The automated phone system was horrible. The menus were multi-layered, repetitive and clumsy. It took me several minutes to find a place where I was on hold for almost 15 minutes. When I finally got someone, she was not helpful. I could open up a "case number" and a manager would contact me within 48 hours, or I could come to the store (70 miles) and they would get me my parts. I asked to speak to a manager and was put on hold. 10 minutes later I gave up and planned to drive back to the store the next day. After all, I had this stuff spread out all over the place in mid-assembly. I wasn't going to wait 48 hours for a "case number" and a manager to contact me. I guess I was hoping for "We're terribly sorry. We realize this sort of thing is frustrating and disappointing. Let's go over what you are missing, find out what we need and get these parts overnight express delivered to you." Okay - maybe that was expecting too much. Still, I was bugged by the fact that I had to drive back to the store and find the missing pieces.

When I arrived at the store, I received prompt (I think I caught them at a good time) attention and I had my bits in under 30 minutes.

The Ikea store, the products and the concept are pretty sweet. I guess in the future I'd give them the benefit of the doubt on the frequency of missing components, but I discount the total notion because of the potential for assembly aggravation (read: missing bits). Also - putting the stuff together loses its charm after an hour or so. Next time I consider Ikea I'll properly account for my labor (allowing more time than you might think).

I would strongly suggest a different strategy on the phone. This was a complete failure. Come on Ikea - fix the thing. You can do it.

Saturday, September 22, 2007

Barnes & Noble vs. Amazon.com


Barnes & Nobles wants me to pay them $25 each year for a "membership card" that will get me 40% off Best Sellers and 20% off most of the other stuff. They also toss point of sale discount stickers on many new arrivals and other titles that are not in the top ten. For some reason, they seem to apply the sticker so that it covers part of the title or subtitle - just to annoy me.

So, if you don't buy their membership, you pay $25.99 for a $25.99 list price book. If the one you want happens to have a 20% off sticker on it, you can pay $20.79. If you do buy their membership, you can pay $16.37 at the store on on their website. I'm not sure how they do the math. That in itself is annoying. Hey - $16.37 doesn't seem like a completely raw deal. If you buy several books at once, the BN pitch starts to make more sense. If you buy $125 worth of books, the membership will pay for itself. At some point, provided you are a prolific consumer of books, it's not the worst deal ever.

I don't want to carry your card around with me. I have enough baggage. At the very worst, you should give it away for free. I'm not even sure free is cheap enough. You should pay me to carry that thing around. It might make sense at some point, but it tastes lousy having to pay.

So I locate the same book at Amazon.com. It takes me a few seconds and I can find it by entering the title: part of the title (only one word will work) or the author, or even one of the author's other titles (let's just say it's easier than hunting around the store). The $25.99 book is $15.59 right up front at Amazon. Gee, that's a curious amount. 40% off the original $25.99 represents a discount of $10.40. This would suggest that the BN member price should be $15.59 just like Amazon. But it isn't BN is $16.37 for members - such a deal. Oh and you still pay for shipping.

Well anyway, if you use Amazon with any frequency, it's not hard to figure out how to get free standard shipping and even expedited shipping for free. Yup - I know the store eliminates shipping, but so what. When was the last time a book purchase was an emergency? The wait time for shipping is as little as two days (for free).

If I need something pronto and it is available at Barnes & Noble and I'm in the mood for a Starbucks $3 coffee (Venti redeye), I guess I'd go there. Other than that, Amazon wins. Oh yes.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

One down

Well then... Thanks to the fellow in Suwanee Georgia for sending the Parker Spanish Fly guitar. It would have been a very nice gesture if you didn't make me pay for it, but still - since these units are relatively scarce (about a year wait to get one custom made from Parker), I'm happy to pay the dough anyway.

How ironic that this particular guitar comes from Georgia, not all that far from Augusta (Augusta National). Random - Random - Random!

Now, if we can just get to work on the arrangements there, well then we'll have something. Actually, I'll be grateful and amazed.

Thanks Suwanee

Monday, September 10, 2007

McDonald's by Knopfler - Boom, Like That



i’m going to san bernardino
ring-a-ding-ding
milkshake mixers
that’s my thing, now
these guys bought
a heap of my stuff
and i gotta see a good thing
sure enough, now
or my name’s not kroc
that’s kroc with a ‘k’
like ‘crocodile’
but not spelled that way, yeah
it’s dog eat dog
rat eat rat
kroc-style
boom, like that



the folks line up
all down the street
and i’m seeing this girl
devour her meat, now
and then i get it, wham
as clear as day
my pulse begins to hammer
and i hear a voice say:
these boys have
got this down
oughtta be a one of these
in every town
these boys have
got the touch
it’s clean as a whistle
and it don’t cost much
wham, bam
you don’t wait long
shake, fries
patty, you’re gone
and how about that
friendly name?
heck, every little thing
oughtta stay the same
or my name’s not kroc
that’s kroc with a ‘k’
like ‘crocodile’
but not spelled that way, now
it’s dog eat dog
rat eat rat
kroc-style
boom, like that


you gentlemen
ought to expand
you’re going to need
a helping hand, now
so, gentlemen
well, what about me?
we’ll make a little
business history, now
or my name’s not kroc
call me ray
like ‘crocodile’
but not spelled that way, now
it’s dog eat dog
rat eat rat
kroc-style
boom, like that



well we build it up
and i buy ‘em out
but, man they made me
grind it out, now
they open up a new place
flipping meat
so i do, too
right across the street
i got the name
i need the town
they sell up in the end
and it all shuts down
sometimes you gotta
be an s.o.b.
you wanna make a dream
reality
competition?
send ‘em south
if they’re gonna drown
put a hose in their mouth
do not pass ‘go’
go straight to hell
i smell that
meat hook smell
or my name’s not kroc
that’s kroc with a ‘k’
like ‘crocodile’
but not spelled that way, now
it’s dog eat dog
rat eat rat
kroc-style
boom, like that

Friday, September 7, 2007

...and a small Diet Coke please.


The news about the "New Jobs" for August (a net loss of 4,000 jobs instead of the anticipated net gain of 110,000 new jobs) seems to be causing quite a stir.

I'll have a large order of Doom and Gloom, a medium extra crispy Kick in the Balls, and a small Diet Coke.

Please.

Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Johnny Damon and Hervé Villechaize

It is only a rumor that Johnny and Hervé are twins. However, it's safe to say Hervé had a better arm.

Duke Kahanamoku



Duke Paoa Kahinu Mokoe Hulikohola Kahanamoku (August 24, 1890 – January 22, 1968)